Tuesday, 30 June 2020

June settles

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +47pts (1.5%) at 3100. Nasdaq comp' +1.9%. Dow +0.8%. The Transports settled +1.3%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

Equities opened a little choppy, leaning weak to 3047, but then clawing back upward into early afternoon.

These remain bizarre times, the following two screenies are added, if only for historical posterity...

"No one cared who I was until I put on the mask"

"No one cared until I started buying Newmont $NEM corp' bonds"

The afternoon saw considerable chop, but with the closing hour seeing an upward spike to 3111, and settling at 3100. Volatility was ground lower, the VIX settling -4.2% to 30.43.

With the SPX settling June above multiple aspects of support, not least the 50dma, psy'3K, the monthly 10MA, and the 200dma, it made for a second consecutive bullish monthly settlement. The market still looks vulnerable to the mid/low 2800s, but I would expect July itself to also settle >3K, not least if stim' bill 4 is passed.
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Moody skies... as June/Q2/H1 settles
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Monday, 29 June 2020

Conflict of interest

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +44pts (1.5%) at 3053. Nasdaq comp' +1.2%. Dow +2.3%. The Transports settled +2.8%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, but the gains were shaky from the start, with the SPX quickly reversing to test giant psy'3K. From a print of 2999, the SPX swung upward to 3049, seeing increasing chop, with a cooling wave to 3032, and renewed closing upside to settle at 3053.

Volatility was itself relatively subdued, the VIX settling -8.5% at 31.78.


Conflict of interest

Yours truly has always had issues with mainstream financial TV. The literal 'cheerleaders' - not least the Cramer, Eisen, and Liesman, have always been supporters of the central banks.


The Cramer... now partly funded/supported by the Federal Reserve

The press release from the NY fed has clarified Print Central is now in (financial) bed with some 794 companies.

Full list: see: https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/secondary-market-corporate-credit-facility/secondary-market-corporate-credit-facility-broad-market-index

Specifically, hit the link for 'June 5, 2020' which was actually posted/released Sunday June 28th.

A few notable mentions...





From hereon, whenever any fed official is interviewed by CNBC (owned by Comcast) or FOX Business (owned by FOX), there is a massive and obvious conflict of interest.

I'm guessing the mainstream cheerleaders on CNBC and FOX business will refrain from ever acknowledging this.

Ohh, and...


... its pretty incredible to see the Fed are now an owner of corp' bonds/debt in tier'1 miner Newmont (NEM). All that is left is for the fed to start buying the equity, and you know dear reader... that is just a matter of time.
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Full moon... July 5th
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Goodnight from London
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Saturday, 27 June 2020

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bearish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly declines ranging from -3.3% (Dow), -3.1% (NYSE comp'), -3.0% (Trans), -2.9% (SPX), to -1.9% (Nasdaq comp').


Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes

sp'500



Nasdaq comp'



Dow



NYSE comp'



Trans





Summary

All five US equity indexes settled net lower for the week.

The Dow lead the way lower, with the Nasdaq comp' most resilient.

The Nasdaq comp' broke a new historic high.

More broadly, four indexes are below their respective monthly 10MA, the exception being the Nasdaq comp'.



Looking ahead

It will be a short four day holiday week, ahead of Q2 earnings season.

Earnings:

M - MU
T - CAG, AYI, FDX
W - GIS, STZ
T -
F --
-

Econ-data:

M - Pending home sales
T - Case-Shiller HPI, Chicago PMI, consumer con'
W - ADP jobs, PMI/ISM manu', construction, vehicle sales, FOMC mins (2pm)
T - Weekly jobs, monthly jobs, factory orders, EIA Pet'
F - *CLOSED* - US Independence Day.

*As Tuesday will be the end of June, Q2, and H1, I would expect considerably higher volume.
**As Thursday will be the lead into a long weekend, once the econ-data is out of the way, trading could be expected to be on the lighter side.
-


Final note

The monthly settlement is always important, not least for the chartists. As things are, we can be certain that the Dow, Transports, and NYSE comp' will settle June outright bearish. Further, the monthly candles are very spiky, with clear failures to break and hold above the monthly 10MA.

The SPX is currently borderline, just 2pts under the monthly 10MA of 3011. Equity bears need a June settlement under 3K to make things decisive. Otherwise, I would seek the mid/low 2800s, before resuming upward.

After this week's net decline, there is already renewed mainstream chatter that further US Govt' stimulus (package number'4) will be needed. The Fed themselves have repeatedly stated their support for such further fiscal stimulus.

There is the issue of Corona of course. It has been interesting to see how the cheerleaders are again starting to recognise the economic recovery might not be V-shaped, as businesses are actually increasing the degree of medical theatrics, rather than continue to ease toward normalcy.

Finally, we're now just over four months from a US election. Whilst the media are loudly touting that Trump will be replaced by Biden, these are the same hacks who never saw him winning in the first instance. Do I have to dig up all the 'Hillary ahead by 16pts' screen captions/video from CNN, MSNBC, and others, that spanned summer 2016? 

Anyway, lets see how June/Q2/H1 settles... in the twilight zone. 

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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.

Friday, 26 June 2020

Ending on a rough note

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, sp -74pts (2.4%) at 3009. Nasdaq comp' -2.6%. Dow -2.8%. The Transports settled -2.2%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened on a moderately weak note, and after an initial rally attempt, spiraled lower into the early afternoon, largely on increased Corona concerns.

Meanwhile...

The best of America and humanity... upgrading ISS, just east of Florida

The afternoon saw further weakness to sp'3004, settling at 3009, notably under the 200dma.

Volatility picked up, with the VIX settling +7.8% to 34.73. The 39/40s appear probable before end month, and that would arguably equate to spx <3k.
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Storms clearing

A fine end to the day

33.7% moon
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Goodnight from London
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Thursday, 25 June 2020

Late day ramp

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +33pts (1.1%) at 3083. Nasdaq comp' +1.1%. Dow +1.2%. The Transports settled +1.2%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened on a weak note, pressured by further Corona concerns, but also by the latest weekly jobs data. The market saw considerable chop into the mid afternoon.

There was a closing hour ramp... for no good reason, with s/t momentum turning positive. Whilst the mainstream cheerleaders attributed the reason for the ramp as due to loosening of the Volcker rule, that news/chatter was out in pre-market.  

Volatility saw an early (cash market) high of 36.34, before melting lower into the mid afternoon, and getting whacked into the close, the VIX settling -4.8% to 32.22.

Your view...


A majority (if marginal) of you believe June will settle above 3K.
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Summer time in the park

Next full moon is July 5th
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Goodnight from London
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Wednesday, 24 June 2020

Renewed Corona concerns

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, sp -80pts (2.6%) at 3050. Nasdaq comp' -2.2%. Dow -2.7%. The Transports settled -3.1%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened broadly lower, and after an initial attempt to reverse upward, the market spiraled lower on renewed mainstream Corona concerns. The 12pm hour saw sp'3032, then a bounce into the closing hour to 3067, with a closing minutes dive to settle at 3050.

Head against the desk.

Even Cheerleader Cramer is getting tired of the increasingly stupid stock upgrades, this time from Heather Bellini of Goldman Sachs.

Volatility picked up, with the VIX spiking to the 37s, and settling +7.9% at 33.84. With just four trading days left of June, its now merely a case of whether we settle the month above or below 3K.
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Next full moon is July 5th.
--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Tuesday, 23 June 2020

Overnight drama

US equity indexes mostly closed moderately higher, sp +13pts (0.4%) at 3131. Nasdaq comp' +0.7%. Dow +0.5%. The Transports settled +1.3%.
 
sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened broadly higher, which was an impressive reversal after overnight (if brief) declines.

Indeed, there was some distinct overnight drama...


One Twitter poster summarised it...



The Trump tweet (10.22pm EST)...



Protecting equities is clearly a priority for the current administration, and also its lackey... the federal reserve. We can expect more overnight 'stick saves', and that most certainly includes waking up the Kudlow at 2am.... if necessary!
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Equities clawed upward into the early afternoon to 3154... just 1pt shy of last Friday's high.
The late afternoon saw some distinct cooling to 3127.

Volatility was subdued, the VIX settling -1.3% at 31.37.
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Another fine summer's day.
--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
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Monday, 22 June 2020

Underlying upside

US equity indexes mostly closed on a positive note, sp +20pts (0.7%) at 3117. Nasdaq comp' +1.1%. Dow +0.6%. The Transports settled -0.2%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened choppy, leaning on the weaker side. All the bears could muster was sp'3079, before the market clawed upward, stretching all the way into late afternoon to 3120, and settling at 3017. Today's price action was just another reminder of underlying upside.

Volatility opened lower, with the VIX settling -9.5% at 31.77, reflective of a comfortable mainstream.
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A fine summer's day in the London metropolis
--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to my intraday service. 
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