Monday 6 August 2012

Closing Brief

Dull. Dull....Dull....and then with thirty minutes left, finally a little price movement!

The closing hourly index charts





A micro-wave lower in the closing 30 minutes, after 6 hours of relative grave-yard trading conditions.

There really isn't anything much to say. The downside targets are clear, bears need <1355 just to start with, and then 1325. Bulls will merely be seeking to exceed 1400..and then 1422.

A little more later.

3pm update - closing hour weakness?

Whilst we are flat lining in price, the hourly cycle is rolling over. Nothing conclusive yet, but it might be the start of something for Tuesday.



Daily cycle, top of the channel, hourly cycle...rolling, 15min cycle....kinda low.

There is still a danger of a stop-sweep in the closing hour, which would of course be really annoying for those bears with stops in the 1400/05 range.

More after the close

2pm update - barely awake

All quiet..oh so ...quiet.



Its certainly possible the algo-bots might wish to do a short-stop sweep in the closing 2 hours. A brief jump over 1400, kick out everyone, and then drop back lower.

Regardless of whether that happens or not, looking for weakness Tue/Wed.

1pm update - pretty straightforward

Three baby hourly candles in a row, this latest up cycle is getting real tired. I suppose the algo-bots might want to yet wash out any stops at 1400, but the longer they leave it..the harder it'll be.



We have a very well defined wedge on the hourly chart.

Targets are pretty obvious...

sp'1355..take out last weeks low.

Although a close this Friday in the 1370s would break the current wedge.

12pm update - sleepy Monday

A very quiet Monday, but a good opportunity for everyone to re-position - whether bullish or bearish, for the rest of the week.




From a cycle perspective, VIX is due to start some sort of move higher, at least to 17.50, that seems possible into tomorrow.

Time for lunch

11am update - top of the channel

We're at the very top of the hourly cycle channel.

It is arguably a good place for day/swing traders to start a new short-position, with simple short-stops somewhere in the 1400/05 level.



As noted earlier...I'm looking for a flat close. I'd guess we will go briefly red at some point later today, but..close flat.

Not exactly riveting action, but a good day for those looking to re-short..or exit remaining long blocks.

10am update - quiet Monday

I'm really not expecting anything from today. I'd guess we see morning gains turn slightly red later in the day, with a flat close.

If today is the top of another small wave, then look for falls Tue/Wed, with yet another attempt to break the lower channel later this week.



Near trend remains up, but we're at the top of the channel..and its been a very reliable channel. A move down to sp'1350 is viable near the end of this week, but that would still not violate the broader trend.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Well,  here we go again, another week at the big casino wheel. Futures are marginally higher, sp+2pts to 1392.




I'd guess we close today flat, and maybe put in at least 2 o3 choppy days before any moderate decline to again re-test the lower channel line.

Good wishes for the week ahead