Monday 7 October 2019

Starting choppy

US equity indexes closed on a weak note, sp -13pts (0.4%) at 2938. Nasdaq comp' -0.3%. Dow -0.4%. The Transports settled -0.2%.




US equities opened on a slightly weak note, with an early low of sp'2935, but then clawing back upward to turn positive to 2959, a considerable 104pts above the Thursday low.

Whilst the US President was busy with other things, Powell took an unusual indirect swipe back...

"The... central bank must be absolutely free from the dangers of control by politics..." - Powell. We can be sure Trump will be taking ever more fierce swipes at the fed, with any weak econ-data, bad earnings, or any degree of equity cooling.

The US President appeared in the late afternoon, for the signing of a US/Japan trade agreement.

"... we have no inflation, if anything, its going below the number, so therefore we're entitled to an interest rate cut, I hope the fed does that... a substantial one". As things are, we're set for rate cuts 3 and 4 at the FOMCs of Oct'30th and Dec'11th.

The late afternoon saw renewed equity weakness, with the SPX settling moderately lower at 2938. Volatility churned the 18/16s, settling +4.8% at 17.86. S/t outlook offers equity cooling to at least sp'2918/11, with VIX 18/19s.

A new era

Equity trades are now at zero cost. That just leave options trades, although at least the 'base commission' has been removed. I have to imagine we'll see the average per contract commission fall to 50cents or lower in 2020.

Whilst of the mainstream brokers have been lowering commissions across the past few decades, Robinhood has been a primary factor in helping push commissions from low to zero. As things are, Robinhood are due to IPO before year end.

Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EDT) @

Goodnight from London
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