Wednesday 31 August 2016

A sixth consecutive net monthly gain?

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -4pts at 2176 (intra low 2170). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.1% and 0.6% respectively. VIX settled +1.4% @ 13.12. Near term outlook is bullish into and beyond the Labor day holiday break (Sept 5th), with sp'2225/50 a viable target by late September.




A pretty subdued day.. as expected... leaning a little weak. Even the afternoon cooling to sp'2170 only saw the VIX climb to 13.60. A move to the 15s looks highly unlikely in the near term, with the key 20 threshold out of range until late September.

A probable August net gain


Considering the short term cyclical setup, the sp' is set for a sixth consecutive net monthly gain - the best run since summer 2013.

I am well aware - and would agree, that the Sept/Oct' period can be a struggle for equities, but broadly, I don't see a move back under the breakout level of sp'2134. Bears... look..... toast.

Yours.. the bullish permabear.

Goodnight from London