With equities broadly weak for a third consecutive day, the VIX opened higher (intra high 15.50), cooling into the early afternoon, and settling +7.6% @ 15.29. Near term outlook is mixed, with the bigger weekly cycle offering VIX 18s later this week, along with the sp'2050/40s.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
VIX'weekly
Summary
*note the weekly cycle,... bullish MACD cross, with upper bol' offering the 18s... probably equiv' to sp'2050/40s.
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Despite a third day of equity weakness, the VIX remains relatively subdued, still stuck in the mid teens.
The big 20 threshold looks out of range in the current cycle... even if sp'500 test the 200dma (currently 2045.. and rising)... later this week.
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US equities closed broadly weak, sp -13pts @ 2079. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -2.0% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook is uncertain, with some stocks (INTC, AAPL for instance) suggestive of further downside across this week.
sp'60min
Summary
*a pretty stinky closing hour... a full reversal of the 2pm attempt to put in a floor.
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A somewhat tedious day, but clearly another day for the equity bears.. with the Friday low (sp'2085) decisively taken out.
Next support is not until the 200dma.. currently @ 2045.. 2050 by end week.
.. yes, I'm surprised.. not least as the USD is rapidly cooling.
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Having failed to hold the Friday floor of sp'2085, the market is now battling upward from 2079. Equity bull maniacs need to see a daily close >2100 to offer some hope that a short term low is in. VIX is reflecting moderate market concern, +5% in the upper 14s. USD increasingly weak, -1.0% @ DXY 95.30s.
sp'60min
UUP, daily2
Summary
*USD is having a pretty bad day for no apparent reason.. other than near term trend. As ever.. weaker USD will be helping the metals/oil to some extent.. although many would be dismissive of the latter.
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An hour left of what has been a pretty tedious day.
Regardless of the close... I'm dwelling on INTC... given the current trend.. it should be testing the $29 floor within 3-4 days. More on that one.. after the close.
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notable weakness: airlines, DAL/UAL, both lower by around -4.6%
US equities are continuing to slip, sp' -11pts @ 2081, with particular weakness in the Transports (-1.9%) and the Nasdaq (-1.0%). USD is also increasingly weak, -0.9% @ DXY 95.40s. Metals are creeping higher, Gold +$3. Oil remains sig' weak, -1.4% in the $58s.
sp'60min
Summary
Few buyers out there today, but neither are there many sellers. Overall, its pretty tedious, aside from the downside in the Transports.. and a few of the tech stocks.
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I mentioned INTC in the previous hour.... here is something I am looking at...
INTC, weekly
If correct, it has rather important implications for the broader market. Will be interesting to see if it can keep falling to the low $29s... and then bounce.
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meanwhile...
NASA... balloon.. with a saucer...
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2.38pm... market making a play to put in a floor.... clearly though.. a daily close in the 2100s now looks out of range.
Whilst the broader market remains only moderately lower, there is once again more significant weakness in the Transports, -1.7% in the 8300s. USD is in cooling mode, -0.7% @ DXY 95.60s. Metals are battling to hold minor gains, Gold +$2. Oil is increasingly weak, -1.6% in the $57s.
Trans, daily
GLD, daily
Summary
*with the USD set for the low DXY 90s, metals/Oil are currently off my 'viable short' list.. at least for 2-3 weeks.
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Clown finance TV is getting overly excited at some tech' conference, where the AAPL CEO is set to appear. Frankly... tiresome.
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As for the market... despite the Transports, the broader market is seeing only moderate weakness, and it really isn't anything for the equity bears to get excited about.
notable weakness: INTC -1.6%, the sixth consecutive daily decline.... the daily cycle looks massively bearish...
Price structure is a giant H/S formation spanning almost a full year. I remain kinda surprised more haven't noticed. Near term target would be the low $29s.
Equities remain seeing minor weak chop, with the sp'500 fractionally breaking the Friday low of 2085. There remains particular weakness in the Transports, -1.6%. USD remains broadly weak, -0.7% @ DXY 95.60s. Metals remain mixed, with Gold +$2, whilst Silver -0.7%
sp'60min
Trans, daily
Summary
Little to add, on what is a relatively quiet Monday.
Greece looks set to rumble on until end month. The only issue is whether they will be willing to fulfill the payments end month... or just GREXIT!
notable weakness, airlines, DAL/UAL, both lower by -4%
US equity indexes are just holding the Friday low, with the sp' coming close at 2086.. along with VIX 15.08. Price action is suggestive of renewed upside.. not least helped as the USD is cooling, -0.5% in the DXY 95.70s. Metals are somewhat mixed, Gold +$1, whilst Silver -0.5%.
sp'60min
UUP, daily2
Summary
*I remain highly focused on the USD (see UUP chart)... which looks to be cooling into late June/early July. Once the USD floors... a few trade ideas I will consider will be long UUP, short Gold - via GLD, and even short the equity market.
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A morning of weak chop.. but we are clearly holding the lows.
notable strength: Ford (F) +1.4%.. although broader price structure looks ugly to the low $13s later this summer.
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time to cook
11.05am.. Transports -1.4%... but well above the recent lows.. from a pure cycle perspective... its due a new multi-week up wave.
US equities open lower, but there really isn't any downside power right now, and the sp'500 has a high opportunity to close moderately higher in the low 2100s. USD is cooling, -0.5% @ DXY 95.80s. Metals are battling to build early gains, Gold +$2. Oil opens lower by around -1%, but looks set to turn positive.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
So.. we're off and running...
I am well aware some are out there screaming for much lower levels in the immediate term (not least with Greece on the edge)... but price action sure doesn't support the notion that we'll be go any lower than sp'2085.
Equity bulls should be able to drag this market higher into the next FOMC.. if not 2-3 weeks beyond it... all the while.. as the USD cools to the DXY 92/90 zone.
Things are setting up rather nicely in the 'big picture'.
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notable weakness, airlines, DAL -2.9%, UAL -3.9%
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King O' is due to speak at the G7.... and it looks like clown finance TV will be giving him all the coverage he wants.
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Good morning. Futures are a touch lower, sp -2pts, we're set to open at 2090. USD is cooling, -0.2% in the DXY 96.10s.. there is viable downside to the 92/90 zone within 3-5 weeks. Metals are battling to bounce, Gold +$2, whilst Oil is -0.4%.
sp'60min
USD, daily2, outlook
Summary
*China, +2.2% @ 5131, another new multi-year high... pretty incredible.
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Overnight action was minor weak chop... certainly, new lows were not broken..
I expect last Friday's low of sp'2085 to hold, with new highs viable across the next few weeks.
Whether we max out at 2140s, 50s, or even higher... difficult to say.. we'll know nearer the time, and there will be other aspects to watch, most notably.. the USD.
re: USD. I am seeking renewed downside to secondary target zone of 92/90, sustained action <90 looks highly unlikely. A bigger move/trade will be from the low 90s to the 120s.... that will likely take until 2016 to fully play out.
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Weekend update from Walker, highly recommended...
Doomer chat, Hunter with Pollock
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Good wishes for the week ahead
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9.35am... VIX opens +5%.... in the 15s, but opening candle set to turn black-fail.... equity bears beware!
9.36am.. VIX black-fail candle.. with a spike top..... market wants to go UP
USD is -0.5%.... and that is going to help the metals/oil.. at least a little.
