US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -0.9pts @ 1960. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. Near term outlook offers the low 1940s (at best).. before new historic highs in mid July. Metals held moderate gains, Gold +$11, whilst Oil slipped -0.3%.
sp'60min
Summary
*I don't much like the attached count on the hourly chart, but that is the best I can come up with.
Certainly though, it seems utterly pointless for anyone to attempt to short the indexes - or go long VIX this week.
Before we know it, it'll be Thursday 1pm..and it'll be a rather long weekend.
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There is little reason why the broader market will do anything different in the last hour of today. A daily close in the low sp'1960s... with 1975/80 viable by the early Thursday close. Trading vol' will remain increasingly light.. ahead of the 3 day July'4 weekend.
sp'60min
Summary
*I don't much like the attached count on the hourly, but its all I got right now.
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I'm somewhat dismissive of even the 1940s this week.
Regardless, primary trend is UP... and market looks set for few weeks higher. I'm still guessing 2000 is out of range..at least in the current multi-week up cycle.
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Notable strength: RIG, +1.3%.. and the 48/50 zone remains viable in July.
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The Rus'2000 small cap is set for very strong monthly gains of around 5%. The 1200s look viable this week.. or next.. with new historic highs (>1212) by mid July. Metals are building gains, Gold +$6
R2K, monthly
R2K, daily
Summary
The second market leader continues to warn of underlying market upside.
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*France did well, now.. can Germany do as well later?
US indexes continue to see very minor price chop. Metals are holding moderate gains, Gold +$2. There is notable increasing weakness in Oil, now -0.8%. VIX is seeing micro chop..stuck in the 11s.
sp'daily5
Summary
Little to add on what is indeed a very quiet day...and will be a quiet week.
The VIX weekly cycle is suggestive of sig' equity weakness in July..but more on that later.
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US equities continue to see minor chop, and that could easily remain the case for the rest of this short 3.5 day trading week. Metals are slightly higher, Gold +$2, whilst Oil is slipping, -0.5%. Far more important though.. its time for another game.. France vs Nigeria.
sp'weekly8b
Summary
Well, minor index chop..and I most certainly welcome the first of today's two world cup games. It makes for a good distraction from the end month tedium of the casino.
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US equities remain seeing minor chop, but the underlying upward pressure is clearly still an issue. With the weekly cycle now offering sp'1975/80 in the immediate term, equity bears have little to look forward to until at least late July.
sp'monthly
Summary
*for much of today, I think I'll stick to bigger picture weekly/monthly charts. Seems little point in daily/hourly charts.
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Little to add... on what looks set to be a relatively quiet 3.5 day trading week.
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*we get the new QE-pomo schedule for July at 3pm.. something to check later, possible QE tomorrow, Wed, or Thursday.
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US indexes start the shortened week with minor chop. Sp'500 has strong support in the 1945/35 zone, with viable upside to 1975/80 by this Thursday. VIX is higher, but only 3%.. in the 11s. Metals and Oil are both flat.
sp'weekly8b
Summary
*note the upper weekly bollinger has jumped into the mid 1970s.
Certainly, market looks viable for upside melt into the 1975/80 zone by late Thursday.
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Chicago PMI 62.6.... a long long way above the 50 recessionary threshold. For the bulls out there, the PMI is highly suggestive that Q1 was an anomaly...and that Q2 will come in 2-3% growth.
Good morning. Futures are fractionally lower, sp -1pt, we're set to open at 1959. Metals are weak, Gold -$5, with Silver -1.0%. Equity bulls look set to end another month with net gains of around 2% for the sp'500, and a VIX that remains crushed in the 11s.
sp'60min
Summary
*Chicago PMI @ 9.45am.. .that will be one to look out for, with some housing data at 10am.
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So...it is month end, end of Q2..and the first half.
It has unquestionably been another good spell for the bull maniacs, breaking new historic highs on many indexes.
Most notable? Arguably, the VIX, which has repeatedly been knocked into the 10s.
For me, the only issue is whether we'll see VIX 9s before this latest multi-week up cycle is complete. I'd guess... probably, not least if sp'2000 is breached.
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*two more big games today...
France vs Nigeria at 12pm EST
Germany vs Algeria at 4pm
Personally, I want to see both of the 'rias get through, that'd make for a real sporting upset.
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Hunter with econ-doomer .. Martenson
Not surprisingly, it is much of the same doom chatter we've been hearing from Mr M' for a good 4-5 years. Make of that... what you will.
