Thursday 2 June 2016

Daily Wrap

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +2pts @ 2099 (intra low 2085). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.7% respectively. VIX cooled from earlier gains, +0.1% @ 14.20. Near term outlook offers weakness into the weekend, as OPEC, the ECB, and further econ-data will likely disappoint.




So... morning weakness.. but a latter day recovery, with the day ending broadly flat. Not the most exciting of days.

VIX continues to reflect a market that has little concern of anything, least of all the dissolution of the EU, weak growth/earnings, or ongoing NIRP in the EU/Japan.

Considering an array of US/world econ-data that continues to come in borderline recessionary, it remains bizarre that many believe the Fed will raise rates - whether in June.. or July.

WTIC oil, weekly

With the bi-annual OPEC meeting tomorrow, there is increased attention on oil. With Oil having broadly climbed from the $26s to briefly hit $50, there will be even less inclination for any of the OPEC members to agree on anything.

$50 oil is not sustainable, considering the ongoing over supply problem, and with global demand broadly flat. A post OPEC sell down looks probable, and that would help give equities an extra excuse to end the week on a particularly negative note.

Goodnight from London