VIX still cooling

With US equity indexes breaking new historic highs, the VIX remained very subdued, settling -1.8% @ 12.48 (intra high 12.96). Near term outlook is for continued equity strength, which should equate to VIX remaining within the 14/10 zone. The big 20 threshold looks out of range for at least another 3-4 weeks.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

*a notable fourth consecutive net daily decline for the VIX
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Equities continue to claw higher.. with a VIX that can't even hold the low teens.

It would seem the big 20 threshold is out of range until at least the second half of May.. if not until the possibly important FOMC of June 17th.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +4pts @ 2112 (new historic high of 2120). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by 0.5%. Near term outlook remains bullish, not least helped by the USD that appears in the process of a key break of the upward trend.


sp'60min

Summary

*awaiting earnings from AMZN and GOOG
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A little weakness into the close, but still, with new historic highs for the sp'500 and NYSE Comp'.. with a post 2009 high in the Nasdaq, today was another victory for the bull maniacs.

The trend is clear... and there looks to be further upside into May.

For me, its now largely about the USD. A key break of the uptrend is underway... that will help give the market a further kick higher into the summer.

The 'fun' really only begins once the USD floors.. whether its DXY 93, 92s.. or a little lower. The hyper-ramp to the 120s will be something that will catch most completely off guard.

Anyway... interesting day...
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4.10pm.. AMZN EPS -12 cents.. inline... as sales beat...

Stock goes +7%... but now in FULL reverse... -1% or so...

4.33pm.. AMZN swings from an AH low of $371 to $401... but overall... the earnings plain.. suck. Worse board of directors in the western world.

*I have never traded AMZN.. but sure keep an eye on it for purely 'entertainment purposes'.


4.57pm... it would seem other earnings from GOOG, MSFT, and SBUX all came in 'broadly fine'.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - holding gains into the close

US equities look set for net daily gains, with the sp' likely to settle within the 2118/12 zone. VIX continues to reflect a market with no concern of anything... least of all.. Greece. Oil has cooled a little from earlier highs, but still set for sig' gains of around 2.3%. USD continues to cool.


sp'60min

UUP, weekly

Summary

*earnings due.. AMZN, and the GOOG
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Little to add.

Just another day where the market opens a little weak, but then the buyers come in.. with a near complete absense of sell side.
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*having exited TWTR at the open, I'm more than content to hold USO-long.. overnight. and probably across the weekend.

2pm update - afternoon chop

US equities are seeing a little chop, after the earlier break of key resistance @ sp'2111... with a new cycle high of 2118.. a mere 0.05% shy of a new historic high. Oil is cooling from the earlier gains, but stiil +2.9%. USD remains notably weak, in the process of breaking the upward trend from May'2014.


USO'15min

UUP, weekly

Summary

Suffice to say... equities look set for a net daily gain... with a VIX that reflects a market that is relatively happy with earnings.
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*I remain looking for an entry in Oil, via USO, and am watching the smaller 15/60min cycle..
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USD is arguably borderline break of trend... which is bullish broader market.. and esp' Oil.
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notable weakness, Alcoa (AA), -3.1%... resuming the downward trend.. headed for 10/9 this summer.
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2.25pm... typical turn/floor time of 2.30pm....

I am LONG oil, via USO from $19.85.. seeking the 21s.

1pm update - Nasdaq leading the way

US equities continue to claw upward, with the Nasdaq comp' at a post 2009 high... set to take out the March'2000 high of 5132. All US indexes look set to break new historic highs in the days ahead.. and are going to be especially helped by a cooling USD.. in the process of breaking the up trend from last May.


Nasdaq comp' daily

UUP, weekly

Summary

*I find it somewhat odd how I seem to be one of the few noting the USD.. which appears set to break the upward trend.

**I use UUP as a way to chart the USD during the day, as stockcharts don't provide USD intraday quotes!
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So.. sp'2118... almost at new historic highs... and regardless of the exact close... it has been another day where the market opens a little weak.. but then turns positive.
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notable weakness: coal miners, BTU -7.9%... the destruction continues

strength: IBM +3.5%... as the 200dma is re-taken.
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1.03pm.. NYSE Comp' breaks a new historic high.. 11218...  its a pretty important sign.

12pm update - breaking resistance

Not surprisingly, US equity indexes have turned positive, and a short-stop cascade is in progress above broken resistance of sp'2111. New historic highs are viable this afternoon... with the sp'2130s a pretty easy target next week. Oil is building strong gains of 3.4%.


sp'60min

USO'60min

Summary

... things are progressing as expected.

Little else to say.
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VIX update from Mr T.


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time for tea.. or something

11am update - Oil is looking strong

Whilst equities are in the process of turning positive, there is notable strength in Oil, building strong gains of 2.7% in the $57s. The $60 threshold looks due... if not 67/75.. as early as July. With the USD -0.6%, metals are a little higher, Gold +$5.


sp'60min

USO'60min

Summary

*I am certainly bullish Oil, but am adverse to chasing it higher this morning.
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The USD is close to a decisive break of the upward trend from last May.... a break into the DXY 96s will clarify that 93/92s will be hit this summer.. perhaps even 90/87.

In any case... such a move will help Oil into the $70s... and that will really help energy stocks.. and the broader market.

This is no market to be shorting... is it?
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time for an early lunch

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open a little lower, but a latter day recovery again looks due. All US indexes look set to break new historic highs into May. Metals are seeing minor gains, Gold +$2. Oil is building early sig' gains of 1.3%.


sp'60min

Summary

*I exited TWTR-long at the open... it was an increasingly annoying trade...  will consider entering ahead of earnings (next Tuesday at the close).

Right now, I have eyes on Oil, but I ain't much interested in chasing the opening gap higher.
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So.. equities are lower, but really.. we know how this will likely end today.. right?
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notable weakness, BTU -3.9%.... breaking a new multi-year low in the $4.60s.

Another success story for the US Govt's 'war on coal'.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -6pts, we're set to open at 2101. Metals are seeing a minor bounce, Gold +$2. Oil is fractionally higher, +0.1%.. and set to climb to the $60 threshold.


sp'daily5

WTIC, weekly'2

Summary

*Oil is net lower on the week, but the weekly cycle is pretty clear... trend remains bullish, and the $60s look due.
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So, equities are set to open a little lower, but as ever, there is little reason why we won't see things turn higher into the afternoon. New historic highs look highly probable in the immediate term.

notable weakness, INTC -1.5%... struggling a little since earnings, but should be able to battle higher.. soon.

strength: EBAY +4.7%.. after what were very good earnings.

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Update from Oscar



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Have a good Thursday
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9.37am... I EXITED TWTR-long.. from $51.95... fractional gain... and a tedious trade....  oh well.

Eyes on Oil, but I ain't much interested in chasing the opening gap higher.


9.39am.. TWTR plunging like a rock... 52.20s to 51.50s in a matter of minutes.

I'll consider picking it up for earnings next Tuesday... maybe it'll cool to $50 again.

Two percent to go

US equities saw a day of moderate gains, with the Nasdaq comp' +21pts (0.4%) @ 5035. The tech' is just under 2% away from breaking the bubble high of March 2000 of 5132. A monthly close in the 5200s will offer clarity of a straight run to the 6000s... before any chance of a sig' retrace.


Nasdaq comp', monthly'2

Nasdaq comp', daily

Summary

*Nasdaq comp' came within 2pts of the March 20th high of 2042
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Suffice to say, I think many are still overly dismissive of the looming significance of a Nasdaq at new historic highs will mean.

Simply put... if we see a Nasdaq monthly close in the 5200s.. whether May, June.. or July... it will be strongly suggestive of a straight move to the next psy' level of 6K.. before year end... if not by Sept/Oct.

Perhaps the market will see a 15/20% correction this autumn.. from around Nasdaq 6K.. but certainly.. not from 5K.. or even 5500.

In any case.. I can't be short the broader market.. or any given stock.
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Looking ahead

Thursday will see the usual jobs data, PMI manu', and new home sales.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed with moderate gains, sp +10pts @ 2107 (intra low 2091). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.5% and 0.1% respectively. New historic highs look due for all indexes in the coming days, at least to the sp'2125/35 zone.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

*Trans remains notably weak, and new highs sure won't be easy.
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Little to add. Broader market looks set to climb higher into May.
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a little more later...