Wednesday 7 March 2012

iSHORT (again)

Targets – broadly met

Yesterday I was looking for sp'1355/60 'best bullish case'...we hit 1354....that is close enough
VIX breaking under 20 was as expected, and for the least it didn't break down too severely.

SP'60min cycle, looks pretty high, and offers some reasonable downside tomorrow and/or Friday.

I suppose its viable we could get a further Thursday kick upward, to as high as 1360, but that seems a stretch. Who wants to buy above 1360 after Wednesdays first initial wave of excitement?

IWM Daily - bearish case

Bearish case: still looking for 76 in the immediate term. It does look VERY likely that we'll bounce off 76 sometime by opex. Right now, any subsequent bounce would likely be restricted to around the 10MA - currently 81 (79 middle of next week)

VIX - Daily, Bullish outlook

VIX got the expected whack treatment today to close a touch under the 50 day MA. If market moves up to around sp'1360, then VIX could briefly hit the rising 10MA - which will be around 18.50 at the Thursday open.

 Bigger Picture - the Dollar (via UUP), weekly cycle

UUP still suggesting we're starting a new bullish wave for the $. We'll know soon enough.

Derivative problems - TVIX

TVIX had a bad day yesterday. With the VIX up over 20%, TVIX managed just a 4% rise. Yes, TVIX does NOT measure the exact same thing as the VIX itself does, but it should be reasonably close..and 2x !

Volume in TVIX has certainly fallen back sharply. Today's loss of almost $1 is a little concerning. What matters is when the VIX hits 25....will TVIX have adequately replicated the move?

A new rival to TVIX...   UVXY

Is this where the old TVIX players are moving their VIX money to? Volume is substantially increasing.


Well, that's all for now, maybe a bit more later tonight.

We have the Greek PPI matter to be resolved. The announcement is rumoured to be around 3pm tomorrow, or maybe sometime Friday. Knowing the Greeks, they'll somehow manage to delay it until after the weekend.

Regardless, I am pretty content being short right now. 

Good wishes

iwaiting..for cheaper iputs

Hi everyone.

We're getting kinda close to my target re-short zone of 1355-60.

I'm going to try to give it a few more hours until I start whacking buttons.

Regardless, the puts I want are -18% so, thats kinda a nice discount already.

Good wishes....more later!

ps...if only I had $1 for everytime I heard the term ipad today. urghhh

update...1pm EST.

back in IWM Puts...@ 79.40 level.
The fact my VIX low side target of 19.50 was hit is added bonus,
Maybe I am early (sure wouldn't be the first time), but buying puts after they are around 20% cheaper is pretty reasonable.
- I wait.

Late night Bear Bonus!

Just a few extra charts..something to consider...

Lots of good fib' levels there.

2 sets..the black set covers the assumed 'C wave'...with the blue...the assumed 'wave'2.
A move to Sp'1240/60 would still allow for a final wave'5 UP into late summer- see bullish outlook post from this past weekend.

NYSE - wedge..almost broken

Pretty exciting to see we're getting close. The key issue will be how powerful the snap lower is when we do break this October low' trend line.

Transports - remains the leader. We now have two good monthly red candles. Doomers need to see a break below the 10MA this month..and keep falling.

The SPY/VIX chart is putting in a great confirmed top

Again, a key level looks to be around 5.0...any move under that..and maybe we'll just go straight down - in the style of last July/August 12 day wave.

VIX ultra bullish- near term

VIX has a gap it might fill Wednesday, before a surge to the 24/26 zone within 3-5 trading days.

Frustrated TVIX holders...hang tight

TVIX is obviously lagging seriously right now. I'm not entirely sure why, but it still looks set to explode to hit 25 within the near term. Hang in there  TVIX holders!

I think that's all for tonight.
*Futures wheel is showing a 0.4% move up.....don't be surprised if we're up 1% at the open, and even a bit more by lunchtime. In my view..its merely a good place to hit buttons and re-short.

good wishes

Some day this war's gonna end

Colonel Kilgore would have made a great trader. Were he a Permabear (could he be anything else?), he'd be short, and he'd sure as hell not let himself get rattled by any incoming fire from the bulls as they try to recover the market intra-day.

No, the good Colonel would stand tall, and stay focused on the bigger battle.

The ultimate line in the sand

The real battle is about the ultimate market line - sp'1000. It remains such a distant target. Clearly, the mainstream media would have us believe it'll never be reached ever again. Most (but certainly not all) chartists dare not suggest we'll be sub'1000 any time soon.

Days like today make being part of this market worthwhile. We had some good dynamic market moves. Even the VIX had a significant +20% move.

Right, lets get to the important charts!

Ignore the 'count'. What matters is that we are yet to even breach the October trend line. That points to around sp'1325.

Sp' weekly - a clear break

Clear levels are the 10MA around 1335..and the main October low trend line at 1310/15.

SP'60 min cycle - massively oversold after a triple down cycle. .

VIX 60min - a surge is in progress, but a pullback first?

The VIX move was pretty impressive, but certainly the VIX is still at very low levels from a daily perspective. Lets keep in mind that the daily 'first target' remains 24/26.

Wednesday outlook

Considering the VIX - and index 60min cycle charts - they are both heavily oversold, my best guess...

A morning bounce, which may stretch all the way into the afternoon. We have the possibility of good ADP jobs data, and there is the very real threat that the media will get all hysterical over the IPAD'3 launch..urghh.

Targets (best bullish bounce case)
SP' 1355/60
VIX 20. It'd seem unlikely VIX can go back under 19 in the near term.

I realise we could get another gap lower at the open, but that seems unlikely.

The plan

I myself will look to short the indexes and again go long VIX Calls sometime tomorrow. I believe there is good potential for substantially more dynamic moves of 3-4% in the coming days. The weekly charts all support some exciting possibilities for this Thursday and Friday.

More later this evening...perhaps