Thursday 24 November 2016

Got your Dow 20k hat yet?

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +1pt @ 2204. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.0% and 0.6% respectively. VIX settled +0.2% @ 12.43. Near term outlook offers further price chop for the half trading day of Friday, as the market remains super strong.




It was just another day for the equity bulls, with new historic highs for the Dow (19083) and R2K (1342).

Market volatility remains naturally very subdued, with the VIX still stuck in the sub-teens. Even when the fed raise rates Dec'14th, that probably won't be enough to kick the VIX back above the key 20 threshold.

At best, a test of the 50dma... which in early December will be in the sp'2160s, and that might equate to VIX 16/17s.

notable strength, Dow, monthly

The mighty Dow is currently net higher for the month by a monstrous 940pts (5.2%), having already pushed into the 19000s.

Like a stock that trades into the $90s... by default, an eventual move to at least test the next psy level of $100 would be highly probable. It is thus not a bold thing to say we'll at least see the Dow test 20k. Whether that is before year end, or not until early 2017... to quote one of the most crooked politicians of the early 21st century, 'what difference does it make?'.

To my American readers (and most of you are)... Happy thanksgiving

Enjoy the day off from the twisted casino, and keep in mind, the Friday closing bell is at 1pm.

Goodnight from London

*the next post will likely appear Friday @ 3pm EST.