Thursday 18 July 2019

Netflix struggling before war

US equity indexes closed somewhat mixed, sp +10pts (0.4%) at 2995. Nasdaq comp' +0.3%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.3% and +0.3% respectively. S/t outlook offers chop into opex.




US equities opened on a weak note, and managed to catch a moderate rally into the afternoon. Volatility picked up a little, with the VIX printing 14.50, but settling -3.1% at 13.53.


Netflix (NFLX) saw fine EPS/Rev' Wednesday evening, but global subscriber growth was only 2.7M against an expected 5M. The market sure wasn't happy, smashing the stock lower at the Thursday open.

Some perspective...

With the loss of the $332s, its effectively open air to next support of 270, and then the 231s.
More than anything, just consider that the net loss in US subs of -126k was even before war with the mouse has begun.

This November, Disney will roll out DisneyPlus. In addition to the classics, the service will have all the Marvel and Star Wars content, including the new show 'The Mandalorian'.

I expect many millions of Netflix subs to cancel, and switch to Disney. I do not believe the market has a full appreciation of this situation.

Yours, awaiting GLOW, season'3.


Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @

Goodnight from London
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