With equities swiftly failing to hold opening gains, the VIX jumped (intra high 14.86), but with latter day equity strength, the VIX cooled, settling +0.9% @ 13.97. Near term outlook is for equity weakness to the sp'2090/80 zone, which should briefly equate to VIX 16s.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
*the third consecutive net daily gain for the VIX
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With most equity indexes close to historic highs, market volatility remains broadly subdued.
If sp'2090/80 in the coming day or two... a brief move to VIX 16s looks viable.
A sustained break above the key 20 threshold looks out of range for some weeks.
US equities closed a little higher, sp +4pts @ 2111 (intra high 2119). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.1% and 0.2% respectively. Near term outlook remains for weakness to the 2090/80 zone, before renewed upside into the FOMC of June 17'th.
sp'60min
Summary
*some distinct weakness in the closing hour, with resistance holding at sp'2119.
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A day of moderate swings, with opening gains failing.. turning a little lower with a floor of sp'2102.. but then swinging almost a full 1% higher.
The closing hour weakness certainly bodes well for the equity bears for Tuesday, although even a decline to 2090 is nothing to get too excited about.
It does seem the next decent opportunity for a major rollover will be after the next FOMC.. and to be clear, I do NOT expect rates to be raised until at least September.
Declining trend/resistance has held at sp'2119. Downside target remains the sp'2090/80 zone, where there are mulitple aspects of support. A break into the 2070s looks unlikely this week. USD is holding gains of 0.5% @ DXY 97.30s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$1, whilst Oil is back to u/c.
The Ice King welcomes all resistance
sp'60min
Summary
So... opening gains.. a swift reversal... a lot of chop... with a little upside to resistance.
For many.. a day of mild confusion.
Broadly... further weakness to sp'2090/80 looks highly probable.. not least ahead of the monthly jobs data and the OPEC meeting - both due this Friday.
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After another minor wave higher, the sp'500 appears stuck around sp'2116, with VIX +0.1% in the 13.80s. USD is holding gains of 0.5% in the DXY 97.50s. Metals have completely failed to hold sig' opening gains, with Gold swinging from +$14 to -$1. Oil remains similarly weak, -0.3%
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
*daily candles for Gold and Silver are starting to look like a major fail. I expect further downside from here, first target is $1170 for Gold.
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Little to add...
Market should roll lower into the close. A net daily decline remains very viable.
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notable weakness, oil/gas drillers, RIG -2.0%, SDRL -0.6%
US equities have seen another moderate swing to the upside... battling to take out the opening high of sp'2116. A daily close above resistance (2119 at the close) looks unlikely. With the USD +0.6% in the DXY 97.60s, the metals/oil are under renewed pressure, Gold +$1, whilst Oil -0.9%
sp'60min
Summary
Not much to add... it remains choppy.... I sure don't see much chance of a major break higher.. not even as China remains in hyper-bullish mode.
Target remains sp'2090/80 zone... probably by Wed'
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notable weakness, coal miners, BTU -6.7% @ $3.15... the $2s are a'coming, right?
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Interesting guest on clown finance TV this lunchtime...
$85 by end September looks EXTREMELY unlikely. The bigger weekly/monthly charts will barely be offering the $70s in late summer, never mind $80s.
My upper end target remains $75.. but that looks highly unlikely as the USD is set on a course for the DXY 120s... even the mainstream are broadly agreed with that.
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US equity indexes are broadly flat.. but very choppy as the bull maniacs are battling hard for renewed upside. All things considered, a washout in the sp'2090/80 zone looks due within the next few days.. along with VIX 16s. USD is building sig' gains, +0.7% in the DXY 97.50s.
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
*with the USD on the rise, the metals/Oil are cooling from the opening highs.
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Not much to add.. on what is a pretty choppy start to the month.
Considering the opening reversal.. bears look moderately in control... at least until Wed' morning.
US equities remain moderately weak, having seen a rather classic opening reversal from sp'2116. There is viable downside to the sp'2090/80 zone across the next few days - with VIX 16s, before renewed upside into the FOMC of June 17th. USD has rebuilt gains, +0.6% in the DXY 97.40s.
The many faced god has bullish and bearish faces
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
*if a man or woman does not get the reference in the picture above, a man or woman is not watching the correct TV show on a Sunday night.
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Okay.. away from Bravos, and back to market land...
Price action looks very much in favour of the equity bears, and is certainly being reflected in the VIX..having broken the high of 14.64.. when sp' was 2099.
Given another few days, we should be somewhere within the sp'2090/80 zone. The VIX should offer a clearer sign of a market floor via a spike top in the 16s (17s.. on a stretch).
notable weakness, coal miners, BTU -5% @ $3.21.. another new historic low.
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US equities open moderately higher to sp'2116, but that is likely the high of the day... and perhaps the week. The door remains open to a minor washout to 2080.. with VIX 16s. USD has cooled a little, +0.1% @ DXY 97.00. Gold/Oil have duly snapped higher.
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
*Black-fail candles all over the place... as the market completely unable to hold opening gains.
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.. and the week begins with a rather classic opening failure... the threat of an upside break looks out of range for a few days.... probably until after the Friday jobs data.
VIX is confirming the turnaround... breaking the high of 14.64... looking set for 15s today. 16s look difficult until tomorrow.
10.05 ISM manu' data comes in okay... market swings higher... although it sure is choppy this morning.
10.26am.. chop chop.. having hit 2102... 2099 is the next target....
Overall... price action sure ain't bullish... a washout to the sp'2080s looks due before renewed upside.
USD back on the rise.. +0.6% in the DXY 97.40s.. that will be a pressure for most asset classes across today.
Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +7pts, we're set to open at 2114. The USD continues to climb, +0.4% in the DXY 97.40s. Metals are already somewhat weak, Gold -$4. Oil is similarly on the side, -0.4%.
sp60min
Gold, daily'2, with USD
Summary
*awaiting a number of data points this morning, notably PMI/ISM manu'
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Welcome to June :)
So, we're set to open a little higher, but a reversal lower looks very possible. Declining resistance will be around sp'2120 by lunchtime.. bears must hold the morning rally below that.
The daily/weekly cycles continue to offer a brief drop around sp'2080, before renewed upside into the next FOMC of June'17th.
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Weekend dollar doom chatter - Hunter, with Schiff
Once again the Schiff is on the 'dollar doom train'. He simply can't help himself, despite being wrong for TEN years straight on national TV/online. Now he is calling for a dollar collapse on the basis that the market believes the fed can raise rates.. but which he does not think is possible.
I have been a supporter of Schiff since 2006, but I do wish he'd quit this currency talk nonsense. He has been wrong for a decade.. and seems utterly inflexible on this issue.
*is it ironic that he never mentions Gold once in this interview. I'd guess he has not capitulated on Gold... quite yet though. Mr Market has yet to break enough of the gold bugs to merit a key floor/washout level.
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notable overnight hyper-strength: China, +4.7% @ 4828... making another attempt to break/hold the giant psy level of 5K.
