Daily Market Wrap

The main indexes continued to show distinct weakness, with the VIX closing up a significant 8-9%. The bigger weekly cycles are primed for a collapse wave into the low sp'1200s by mid-January.

Sp'daily5

VIX, daily

sp'weekly

VIX'weekly

Summary

*this will be brief, since I just don't have a decent connection to post much.

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So, the third consecutive red close for the Sp. This is good, and is a good sign that the original bearish outlook could yet all pan out broadly as expected.

Primary downside target remains somewhere in the 'low sp'1200s', primary target would be around 1225..by mid-January.

Eyes on the weekly charts

Bears should recognise that the VIX is about to go positive cycle for the first time since July 2011. Most will remember what came next. A VIX surge from the teens to the mid 40s, that took just a few weeks.

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I remain somewhat annoyed that I'm largely without a connection. I'll be back tomorrow...but perhaps not until the Thursday close. Urghh.

Goodnight from London

2pm update - on track

The indexes are continuing to show the weakness the bears will need if we're to keep within the July/August 2011 style of decline.


sp'daily5

vix'daily

Summary

Its looking kinda fine, obviously, we're still awaiting for the VIX break >20.

back after the close...

*I will endeavour to update..whenever my lousy stinking connection is running.
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Dow, weekly1, rainbow

First sign of weakness on the weekly charts..a blue candle. I'll look for this to turn red by the Friday close.

First primary target is 12k..and for that to FAIL...with PRIMARY exit target @ 11500/300..by mid-January.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are slightly higher, the sp +3pts, we're set to open around 1430.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

I'm not expecting too much for Wednesday trading, but we should see continued moderate weakness.

Bears should be seeking a break of the recent 1413 low, and then 1398.

In theory, the bigger move to the downside - if we're going to get one, will begin Thursday/Friday.
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special note...

Sporadic internet..sporadic updates

My net has been entirely unreliable for the past few days, and its possible I might disappear for some days.

So..if I'm not around..you know why.

So much for ADSL2.. Bullish telecom sector?

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10am update – upside momentum still weakening

One week

So I get a text message from the UK's worse telecoms bureaucracy (British Telecom)...no engineer to fix my primary landline internet until Jan'3. Great...just great.

I will try to post something at the close.