With US equity indexes breaking a new cycle high of sp'2104, the VIX broke to 12.98 - the lowest level since Oct'2015. There was an intra bounce to declining trend/resistance (intra high 13.88)... but then settling -0.8% @ 13.24.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Suffice to add, a sixth consecutive net daily decline for the VIX.
The daily candle was of the hollow red type, and offers the mild threat of a key mid term floor.
What does seem clear... sustained action above the key 20 threshold looks out of range for the remainder of April, and probably until the latter half of May.
US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +6pts @ 2100 (new cycle high 2104). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled 1.3% and 0.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers a break of short term rising trend/support, a move <2090 will open up the gap zone 2065/61 by the Friday close.
sp'60min
Summary
closing hour action: minor chop around the sp'2100 threshold.
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Well, it was not the kind of weakness (even moderate) that I was seeking.. but then, with new cycle highs, it was always going to be another day for the equity bulls.
To me, its merely a case of whether we can see some weakness across the next 3 days... and attain a weekly close in the 2060s.
If that is the case.. then there is still a chance for the bears to close the month on a somewhat negative note.
US equities are set for increasing weakness, although a sub sp'2090 Tuesday close looks out of range. VIX remains relatively subdued, but somewhat above the early low of 12.98. With the USD -0.5% in the DXY 93.90s, the metals are strong, Gold +$20, with Silver +4.5%.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*note the VIX hourly 12pm candle.. hitting declining trend/resistance.. and then cooling.
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Cyclically... we're set for an equity bearish MACD cross in the closing hour... so.. we 'should' fall.
.. in this market though... even hopes of a fractional net daily decline... are often denied.
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US equities remain moderately mixed, having swung from sp'2104 to 2091. It remains the case that equity bears need to see a Tuesday close <2090 to break the short term rising trend - that stretches back to April'12th (sp'2039). VIX remains a little higher in the 13s.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add.
Its getting a little messy, lets just see how we close.
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strength: oil/gas drillers, RIG +10%, SDRL +14%... the old 'dash for trash' situation
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notable weakness....NFLX, daily
An ugly gap lower on earnings. With the loss of the 50dma, next support is the $90 threshold.. and then $80.
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Whilst equities have seen a moderate reversal from a new cycle high of sp'2104, the VIX has swung from 12.98 - the lowest level since Oct'2015, to the upper 13s. A daily close in the 14s would make things somewhat interesting. Equity bears should be desperate for the upper teens by end month.
VIX'daily3
sp'daily5
Summary
The reversal from the 12s is interesting... but really... I'd really like to see a Tuesday close in the 14s.. along with sp'2085/80 zone.
Cyclically, the setup looks bearish into tomorrow.
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notable weakness....
TSLA, daily
An ugly break lower.. and even the cheerleaders on clown finance TV are dropping their >$300 target.
Next support is the 200dma @ $227.. then $220.. which seems probable before end month.
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US equities are looking increasingly vulnerable to cooling across the afternoon. A Tuesday close under sp'2090 would break the very short term rising trend, and offer further downside to the rather obvious gap zone of 2065/61 before the weekend.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) equity hourly cycle is starting to rollover, and we are clearly due another retrace... if only to the low 2060s.
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The REAL issue is what about next week?
Are the equity bull maniacs going to be able to close April at the highs.. or will we see some end month cooling, with a challenge of (what I consider) the increasingly important higher low of sp'2033.
As things are, I'm still holding out.. as the notion of closing a VIX long position from the 13s seems plain stupid.
(but yes.. I'm aware the VIX can remain broadly subdued for weeks... even many months).
With a new cycle high of sp'2104 - a mere 30pts (1.4%) from the May'2015 high, the equity bulls remain in control. Even if the market can somehow cool to the gap zone of 2065/61 by the Friday close, further weakness to the 2050s before end month looks tough.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
From a pure cyclical perspective, we're set to cool into today's close.. and across much of tomorrow. However, broadly, it remains a case of higher highs.. and higher lows. Until that series is broken.. bears can't get remotely hopeful.
Right now.. the best the bears can push for is a weekly close in the 2060s. It'd make for a net weekly decline of almost 1%.. but still... the bulls could justifiably STILL call the week their own, as they achieved another set of multi-month highs.
The more I look at recent price action, the more I see the recent low of sp'2033 as very important to give ANY bearish clarity.
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Here in London city...
Despite the market, at least I have some decent sunshine today.
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US equities open with a new cycle high of sp'2099. After the 2100 threshold, next level is the Nov' high of 2116, and then the May'2015 historic high of 2134. With the USD -0.4% in the DXy 94.00s, the metals are naturally higher, Gold +$21, with Silver +4.6%.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Little to add.. as the nonsense reaches new heights of insanity.
So.. how low will be VIX remain in the low teens before next jump? On the hourly chart its pretty depressing that the 16s now look a long way up.
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notable mover..
NFLX, daily
With a clear break of rising trend, NFLX loses the 50dma.. next level is the $90 threshold. Daily MACD cycle now negative... nothing bullish in that one.
US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +8pts, we're set to open at 2102. USD is back on the slide, -0.2% in the DXY 94.20s. Metals are naturally higher, Gold +$13, with Silver +3.7%. Oil is +0.7% in the $41s.
sp'60min
Summary
The current rate of incline is pretty damn steep.
Even a retrace to the 2060s is going to take a 2% swing to the downside. The 2050s look out of range for rest of the week.
Equity bears need to see a break back under the 2033 low - by end month, to have any grain of hope that the markets are not in the process of a huge bullish breakout.
Right now... price action offers absolutely nothing to the equity bears, and if the market can cope with the next FOMC and a flat lined Q1 GDP. number, then it really is all over for the bears.. for rest of this year... and probably far beyond.
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early movers...
NFLX: -8% @ $99.... post earnings upset
IBM -3.8% @ $146... lousy earnings
GDX +2.2%.. as the metals see renewed strength
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Update from Carboni
With further equity upside, Oscar is back into the 'economy is fine.. EVERYTHING is just fine again' mindset. Its actually quite sickening, as the reality is far different.
It is indeed bizarre how most people equate equity upside to actual economic strength, but then, its a media/central bank message that most have long since come to accept.
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Despite a failed agreement at Doha, and increasing political turmoil in Brazil, the US market was never significantly spooked overnight. The Dow swung from lows of just -0.7%, to a Monday close of +106pts @ 18004. With the break above the Nov'2015 high, the door is wide open to new historic highs into the summer.
Dow'weekly
sp'weekly
Summary
Suffice to add, new multi-month highs are unquestionably bullish, and ongoing price action offers nothing to the equity bears. Even a move to the lower daily bollinger (currently Dow 17395.. but soon to rise), will make for a lousy exit for most of those currently short.
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Gold chatter - Mr Long with Mr Eliseo
Starts a bit slow, but for those with an interest in the precious metals, its worth sticking with.
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Looking ahead
Tuesday will see housing starts.
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It is.. what it is.
I realise some will roll their eyes at the notion of new historic highs, whether within a few weeks, or later this summer. But hell... even the most bearish participant in this twisted casino should be able to acknowledge the bizarrely bullish reaction of the US market today.
I suppose you could argue the bears still have a chance until actual new highs are broken, but to me... with the Dow breaking back into the 18000s.... it is almost certainly over.
US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +13pts @ 2094. The two
leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.3% and 0.7% respectively. With
the Dow having broken the Nov' high, and >18k, the outlook into the
summer unquestionably favours the bulls.
sp'daily
Dow
Nasdaq
Summary
Suffice to add, the most notable aspect of the day.. the Dow breaking the Nov'2015 high of 17977... and breaking straight into the 18000s.
This is an extremely bullish sign that the market will continue to broadly climb into the summer, with all indexes eventually breaking new historic highs before year end.
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