Thursday, 11 June 2015

VIX continues to melt lower

With equities continuing to battle upward, the VIX was naturally still in melt mode, settling -3.3% @ 12.78. Near term outlook is for further equity upside into next week's FOMC.. which should equate to VIX holding within the 14/11 zone. The big 20 threshold looks out of range until the latter half of July


VIX'60min



VIX'daily3


Summary

*the third consecutive net daily decline in the VIX
--

VIX remains very subdued, as the US market remains supremely fearless.. despite Greece and seemingly looming rate rises in Q3/Q4.

The big VIX 20 threshold looks completely out of range until late July, barring a Greek default end June/early July.

--
more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed broadly higher, sp +3pts @ 2108 (intra high 2115). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.1% and 0.1% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued upside into the FOMC of June 17th. The bigger weekly/monthly cycles are both offering the 2150s before end month.


sp'60min


Summary

*a touch of weakness in the late afternoon, but really, its nothing for the equity bears to get excited about.
--

A pretty quiet day in market land.

It looks like the equity bears won't even be able to manage a retrace to the sp'2100 threshold, before 2120/30s by middle of next week.

The only issue is whether market can cope with the Yellen next week.. and just keep clawing higher, to tag the upper bollinger on the weekly and/or monthly cycle.

In either case... seems zero point being short the market in the immediate term.

Have a good evening
--

4.12pm...  TWTR  CEO has quit....  stock snapping higher... on the 'good news'


Despite the initial ramp... the big $50 level... is a very long way up.

-
more later... on the VIX

3pm update - moderate net daily gains

US equity indexes are set to close moderately higher, with the sp +6pts @ 2111. The Transports is showing some sig' strength, +1.0%. USD remains in bounce mode, +0.4% @ DXY 94.90s. Metals have recovered from the morning declines, Gold -$4, with Silver +0.3%


sp'60min



Trans, daily



Summary

Little to add.. on what was a pretty quiet day.

Equity bulls look set for net weekly gains.. as the bears look to be completely absent until after next Wednesday's FOMC.

notable weakness, coal miners, BTU -12.3%... in the lowly $2.80s.
-

back at the close.

2pm update - VIX in melt mode

Whilst equities are holding moderate gains, the VIX is in classic melt mode, -4% in the 12.60s. Another wave higher into the sp'2120s will like equate to VIX falling into the 11s.. as early as the Friday close. Gold and Oil remain moderately weak, both lower by around -0.5%


VIX'60min



sp'60min


Summary

Price action continues to favour the equity bulls.

Right now, the notion of any sustained action <sp'2100 looks extremely unlikely.
-

notable weakness: coal miners, BTU -8.9%,

1pm update - chop chop

Equities remain in minor chop mode, with the sp +4pts @ 2109. Regardless of the exact close, a net weekly gain for all indexes looks due. USD is holding moderate gains, +0.6% in the DXY 95.20s. Metals are naturally somewhat weak, Gold -$6, with Silver -0.3%. Oil is similarly under pressure, -0.9%


sp'60min


sp'weekly


Summary

Little to add

An increasingly quiet day.. as the market is in consolidation mode.

Market looks set to hold/build gains into the coming weekend.
--
notable weakness: coal miners, BTU -7.9%.. in the $2s....   dire sector.. see 'fair value' post.

12pm update - chop into the afternoon

US equities remain a little higher, as the market is in consolidation mode after a rather sig' ramp from sp'2072 to 2115. A weekly close >2100 looks a given, whilst upper trend/resistance will be around 2120. USD is seeing a moderate bounce, +0.5% in the DXY 95.10s.


sp'60min



UUP, daily2


Summary

*forgive my regular highlights of the USD, but I think it is an important issue in the months.. and years ahead, especially for commodities.
-

Not much to add. Despite another headline from the EU that the 'last/most recent attempt' for a Greek deal has failed, the market simply doesn't much care. Upside into next Wednesday's FOMC looks set to continue.

-
notable strength: Ford (F), +2.0%, although the broader trend remains a choppy mess

--
VIX update from Mr T.   

*not appearing.. again

--
time for lunch :)

11am update - rising resistance

The sp'500 has got stuck at rising trend/resistance @ 2115.. along with VIX flooring at 12.71. A minor down cycle would be very natural.. but regardless, by the Friday close, the market will have viable upside to 2120/22 zone. USD is holding moderate gains, +0.6% in the DXY 95.20s.


sp'60min



UUP, daily2


Summary

*Despite the current gains, UUP still looks set for the low 24s into early July.. with DXY 92/90.
--

Little to add.

Market appears due some weak chop into te afternoon.... but with broader upside into the weekly close.
--

notable weakness: Sears (SHLD) -1.9%....  a real mess.

10am update - opening gains

US equities open moderately higher, sp +7pts @ 2112, with the VIX reflecting a market of renewed confidence, -2% in the 12s. USD is seeing a bounce, +0.7% @ DXY 95.30s, and that is arguably impacting the metals Gold (-$7) and Oil (-0.5%).


sp'60min



sp'daily5


Summary

There should be little doubt now, we're already a full 2% above the Tuesday cycle low of sp'2072.

New historic highs in the sp'500/Dow look probable... into end month/early July.

First support is the 2100 threshold, a net weekly gain looks likely. The only thing that could spoil the party would be if the Greeks announce they won't concede any further.

-
notable weakness, oil/gas drillers, RIG -2.6%, SDRL -1.5%, as oil cools.
--
back at 11am

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a little higher, sp +3pts, we're set to open at 2108. USD is seeing a bounce, +0.4% at DXY 95.00s. Metals are naturally under pressure, Gold -$7. Oil is similarly on the slide, -0.7%


sp'60miin


sp'weekly


Summary

*awaiting retail sales data.
--

Suffice to say, regardless of any intraday weakness, another net daily gain looks due..

A weekly close in the sp'2120s remains very viable, and if so, it'll likely clarify that a tag of the upper bol' on the weekly (2150/60s).. or even monthly cycle (2170/80s) is due for the sp'500, before a summer rollover.
-
notable early weakness, oil/gas drillers, RIG/SDRL, both lower by around -1%
 -

Have a good Thursday
-

8.32am.. Retail sales +1.2%... broadly inline... and at least the econ-bulls can be relieved about that.

Equities holding minor gains, sp +5pts, set to open at 2110.

Metals under pressure from rising dollar, Gold -$8.

USD continues to cool

Whilst equities closed significantly higher, the USD continued to cool, settling -0.6% @ 94.60 (intra low 94.30). King Dollar looks set for the DXY 92/90 zone within the next few weeks before completing a pretty natural retrace from the March high of 100.71.


USD, daily2



USD, monthly'3' outlook



Summary

Little to add from recent posts.

USD remains in cooling mode, and once a floor is solidified, resuming strength in the USD will be a major problem for the precious metals/oil, and to some extent... the US equity market.
--


Looking ahead

Thursday will see the weekly jobs, retail sales, import/export prices, bus' inventories, and the Nat' gas report.
--

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +25pts @ 2105. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 1.4% respectively. Near term outlook has turned bullish, with a cycle low of 2072. Further upside into the FOMC of June 17th look due.. if not somewhat beyond to the 2150/70s.


sp'daily5



Dow



Trans



Summary

*Transports remains a clear laggard, I sure don't expect new historic highs in this index for some months.. if not until next year.
--

Little to add.

A pretty strong day for the equity bears, not least for the headline indexes of sp'500, Dow, and Nasdaq comp'

--
a little more later...