With US equity indexes closing moderately mixed, the VIX remained broadly subdued, settling -1.1% @ 19.98. Near term outlook offers the 18s, with 17/16s next week.. if sp'1970s. Next major opportunity for hyper VIX upside is likely not until mid March.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
*there was a 'rogue print' of 23.66 in the morning, and is arguably to be dismissed as such.
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Little to add.
VIX looks set to continue melting lower into next week. It would seem the 18s are viable this week, 17/16s... next Wed/Thursday.
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*I've eyes on TVIX-long, but will hold off at least until Yellen appears next Wed/Thursday
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US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -0.9pts @ 1939 (intra low 1920). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.9% and -0.3% respectively. Near term outlook is choppy, with the 1970s more viable next week. February looks set for a great deal of chop/churn, with the next major wave lower unlikely until March.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: with no real sell side pressure, indexes see a latter day recovery, breaking a new cycle high of 1947, having battled upward from the Jan'20th low of 1812.
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Little to add, on what was a rather tedious day.
In some ways, it could be argued to most, to just walk away for a week.. or even the rest of the month.
First real opportunity of next powerful downside action is not likely until March.That doesn't mean there won't be tradeable swings of 2-3%, but from a bearish perspective, I don't much like the idea of shorting from anything until 1970s.
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Equity bears should have noticed the VIX (via VXX, TVIX/UVXY) as early as pre-market. The VIX remains broadly subdued, and now its a case of whether today closes a little above.. or below the key 20 threshold. The daily lower bollinger is around 18.50... and that is clearly within range this week.
VIX'daily3
sp'daily5b
Summary
Well, not much to add.
Its a rather tedious start to the month, despite seeing the sp'500 rally from a morning low of 1920 to almost back to flat.
In any case, VIX was indeed the tell.
notable weakness... TVIX, daily
You can see the lower bollinger offering the 7s in the near term.. and that does seem likely. With another week or two of chop... TVIX will suffer some statistical decay, and a brief foray into the 6s will be possible next week.
I'd be tempted in the low 7s, but even then, I'd rather wait until Yellen next Wed/Thursday.
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US equities remain moderately weak, with the sp -8pts @ 1932. There is viable near term upside to 1950, whilst best case downside is the 1920/10 zone. It would seem highly probable the market is set for a great deal of churn across the month.
sp'60min
sp'daily5b
Summary
Scenario'2 looks on track. If correct, there is little reason for equity bears to get involved until next Wed/Thursday.
.. and next week.. the China market is entirely shut for 'spring festival'.. aka 'year of the Monkey'.
Is Monkey mischievous? Will global equity markets whipsaw higher this summer ?
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notable weakness....
RIG, daily
An ugly start to the month, pressured by broadly weak energy prices. Outlook... borderline 'disappear list'... SDRL would like implode first. Price structure is clearly just another bear flag.
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US equities are increasingly choppy as Fed official Fischer is set to appear in NYC. With Nat' gas -7.9% and WTIC Oil -6.4% in the $31s, the market mood is not exactly great. VIX is battling to hold very minor gains of 2% in the 20.60s.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*the earlier print of VIX 23.66 is to be dismissed as one of those kooky 'rogue prints'.
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Well, its only day'1 of February, but its getting a little tedious. In many ways, this month should be about burning off the oversold technicals, before equity bears get their next chance of a multi-week down cycle.
I've not mentioned it yet, but it is notable that the upper bol' on the daily cycle is around sp'2007... later this week, it might be around 1980.
I continue to see sp'2K as a brick wall.
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notable weakness...
CHK -6%
RIG -7%, SDRL -1%
AA -2%
BAC -2%... as GDP for Q4 is now downgraded to around 0.5%, and that lessens threat of rate hikes in the second half.
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US equities continue to claw slowly upward from the early low of sp'1920. Regardless of whether the daily close is a moderate gain or decline.. there seems little reason to expect price action much above 1955/60 this week. Metals are holding gains, Gold +$7. Energy remains exceptionally weak, Oil -5.0% in the $31s.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add.
We're already close to break even, and Fischer hasn't even appeared yet.
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notable strength...
TWTR, daily
There is increasing buyout chatter. If any potential buyer has any sense, they'll make a play after the market has been whacked into the early summer.
US equities remain moderately weak, having seen an early low of sp'1920 - where first support of the hourly 10MA is lurking. It is notable that despite the Dow -170pts, the VIX only managed a minor gain to the 21.50s. It would seem the market is set for broad churn across the month.
sp'60min
sp'weekly6
Summary
*note the second blue candle on the weekly 'rainbow' chart. We will probably get another 2-3 of those before first real opportunity of another wave lower.
Indeed, the MACD (green bar histogram) is still at least four weeks from attaining a bullish cross. We'll likely see a critical FAIL to break back above the zero threshold in late Feb/early March.
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**VIX saw a 'rogue print' of 23.66, and I am dismissing it as such.
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I hear Draghi is talking this hour, and with Fischer this afternoon, equity bears are clearly under threat from any loose money talk from the central bankers.
notable movers..
TWTR +9%, but still only in the $18s.
NFLX +4% in the $96s
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Here in London city...
Another day closer to summer, mild (12c), but real windy.
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US equities begin February on a moderately negative note, with the sp -16pts @ 1924. VIX is naturally on the rise, +6% in the 21s. Broadly though, further upside to the 1970s looks due into next week. Energy prices are under particular pressure, Nat' gas -6.8%, with Oil -4.8%.
sp'daily5
sp'monthly1b
Summary
*I'll cover it some more later, but with a new month, the upper bollinger bands have dropped on the daily/weekly/monthly cycles.
For now, prime resistance is the monthly 10MA @ sp'2023. The gap zone - that many are well aware of at 2040, is OUT OF RANGE. At the March open.. prime resistance will be around 2K.
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So.. we're somewhat lower, but really.. the declines are nothing to get esepecially excited about.
Equity bears should be mindful that Fed official Fischer is set to speak at 1pm.. and Mr Market will no doubt be listening. It'd be a valid excuse for a latter day recovery.
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Perhaps.. somewhat appropriately...
Piggy opens the casino wheel this month.
February is likely to frustrate many, not least the bears. March will offer first real opportunity for the next big push lower.
Good morning. US equity futures are moderately lower, sp -13pts, we're set to open at 1927. USD is cooling, -0.3% in the DXY 99.20s. Metals continue to claw higher, Gold +$5. Oil is retracing after last weeks strong gains, -3.3% in the $32s.
sp'60min
Summary
Last Friday's gains were even stronger than I was anticipating. Considering the size of the gains, its not entirely surprising we're retracing some of them to begin a new week/month.
Broadly the sp'1970s still look very viable next week. Indeed, right now, next Wed'/Thursday (Yellen is set to appear) look prime time for a market short.
notable early movers...
TVIX +1%... which is very minor, relative to the index decline. It does not bode well for the equity bears today.
RIG/SDRL -3.8%... as energy prices see renewed declines
TWTR +7.5%... buyers on the back of FB ?
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Econ chatter, Mr Long with Mr Rubino
For those with an interest in the macro-economic picture, this is rather good.
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More Econ/doomer chatter, Hunter with Stockman
As ever... make of that, what you will. I sure don't agree with all of it.
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Overnight action....
Japan: solid gains of 2.0% @ 17865
China: another unstable session, -1.8% @ 2688
Germany: currently -1.1% @ 9688
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