With equities significantly lower in the morning @ sp'1891, the VIX built sig' gains to 22.87. However, with a powerful latter day equity recovery, the VIX rapidly cooled, settling -1.2% @ 20.72. Near term outlook offers the sp'1950/60s, and that will likely equate to VIX 18s. If sp'2K... VIX 16/15s... briefly.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Suffice to add... one of those wild market days.. with a rather significant latter day equity recovery, resulting in the VIX cooling from the upper 22s to the mid 20s.
A weekly close under the 20 threshold now looks probable.
*to be clear though, VIX 40/50s looks very viable this spring... as the clock IS ticking.
US equities saw a very significant latter day recovery, from a morning low of sp'1891, settling +8pts @ 1929. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.5% and +1.0% respectively. Near term outlook offers renewed upside to the 1950/60s... with threat of 2K by mid March.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: rather powerful upside into the close.. with a new intra high of 1932.
For the equity bears... simply nightmarish.
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Suffice to add.. it was just another day in the crazy casino... where early morning weakness - based on a truck load of negatives.. still saw the market swing powerfully higher into the afternoon.
For many.. this is understandably too stomach churning to watch, nevermind be part of.
It would seem we could see a break above the 50dma tomorrow... and that opens up a weekly close in the 1960s.. even the 70s.
From there.. 2K becomes a basic target..... with a scary gap zone of 2038/43.. by mid March.
The sp'500 has not surprisingly already turned fractionally positive, as cyclically, we were simply on the low side. Now its a case of whether the bull maniacs can attain a Thurs/Friday close in the 1930s - to keep the door open to 2K, which frankly doesn't look overly difficult. Gold continues to lose its fear bid, now just +$3.
sp'60min
GLD, daily2
Summary
*the black-fail candle in Gold should be a concern to anyone holding long gold/mining stocks overnight.. and into early March.
There is HIGH threat of Gold cooling to the red zone.. which in itself though, does nothing to negate the multi-year breakout that it recently achieved.
Short term bearish.... mid term bullish.. at least to $1300.. aka.. GLD 125s (min' target).
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As for equities... this morning sure didn't feel super bearish.. and seeing some of the indexes already turn green is just another reminder that this remains a nasty market.
For those holding short since early morning... the next 2-3 weeks could be real annoying.
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notable cooling: GDX, from gains of around 4.5%.. now just +0.2%
Again.. .a black-fail candle... and those are NOT to be dismissed lightly.
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US equities remain moderately weak, but well above the morning low of sp'1891 (VIX 22.87). A daily close in the 1915/25 zone looks probable. Metals continue to cool from the earlier high, Gold +$13, with Silver +0.2%. Oil is helping turn market mood, +0.4%.
sp'60min
Summary
Suffice to add... equity bulls should be content with ANY close >1910. As it is.. the 1920s looks possible.. which would see the VIX turn red.
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As for 'an indirect signal'....
I try to keep a few dozen individual company charts in mind.. some can offer underlying bearish/bullish signs of where the market is really headed.
This morning, I had eyes on QCOM. It had already rallied from the $42s to 51.
QCOM, daily
I'd considered picking up a micro long... but.... option call spreads were terrible at 10/15% wide, even for front month. Then there is the issue that I'd be buying into a broader downward trend... in a market that is liable to much lower levels this spring.
So.. I held off.
Anyway... the point is... QCOM looks set for the gap zone of 56/60.. where the 200dma is lurking.
.. a hit of 56/57s would (in theory) equate to sp'2K by mid March.
.. and that is just one reason why I'm not getting hysterically bearish in the near term.
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The sp'500 has already seen a significant swing from sp'1891 to 1910. Price action remains pretty twitchy, but cyclically, we're set to battle upward for the remainder of the week. Metals continue to cool from earlier highs, Gold +$13. Oil is +0.6%... making for a 4% swing from early lows.
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
re: Gold. Note the black-fail candle on Gold....a lower high (whilst miners broke a higher high).
Broadly.. I would only feel comfortable going long gold - via GLD, in the red zone.. equating to Gold $1180/70.
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As for equities.. clearly.. the morning break under the sp'1900 threshold was a bit of a scare, but still... those weekly cycles still bode for higher levels.. before the next grand rollover.
US equities continue to battle to hold the morning floor of sp'1891. The hourly cycle is clearly on the low side, and its notable that even a recovery to the 1925/30 zone would threaten just another lower high. Gold is starting to cool from earlier highs, now +$19. Oil has recovered from earlier declines, now -0.4%.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*despite another oil weekly surplus of 3.5 million barrels.. its another instance where the market is still able to recover on a lousy number.
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The 11am hourly candle sure should start to be giving the bull maniacs a little hope that we've a short term floor.
Similarly.. the equity bears should be VERY mindful that from a pure cyclical perspective.. there is high threat of renewed upside.. all the way to sp'2K.
As ever... protective trading stops will help solve some of those uncertainties/threats.
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VIX update from Mr T.
I was thinking about VIX May 40s last night.... but from sp'2K.. with VIX 16/15s.
US equities have a provisional floor of sp'1891, with VIX having maxed out at 22.87. Clearly, equities remain broadly shaky, but the bigger weekly cycles are still highly suggestive of renewed upside.. at least to the sp'1950/60s. Gold has seen a fear bid gain of $22.. to the $1240s, with Silver +1.6%.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Well, its 11am.. and the equity bulls really need to push here... and at the very least, hold above the morning low for the rest of today.
I'm still highly suspicious of renewed upside into mid March. I sure don't smell any critical trouble in the immediate term, despite what some suggest.. namely Demark.
Regardless of whether you like the idea of a H/S formation (if extremely slanted), equity bulls now need a daily close back in the 1930s to give some confidence that we'll battle upward for another few weeks.
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notable strength, miners, GDX, +4.4%.. as the precious metals are strong.
US equities open significantly lower, already breaking the sp'1900 threshold. From a pure cyclical perspective, the market is now on the low end, and is due a rebound, but until a daily close >1930, the bulls should be very concerned another key lower high (1946) is already in.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
So.. a pretty bearish open, but still... I don't see a straight run <1810 from here. Maybe I'm just in love with the upside? Gods help us all !
Seriously though... I'm not chasing this lower... the weekly cycles do NOT support the notion of breaking <1810 in the short term.
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*I'll boldly throw this one out there...
sp'60min'3 - H/S formation
I'd agree its already 'borderline'.. and any price action much <1890 would trash it.
However.. if the market can stabilise this morning, then we're still headed close to 2K.. and that would really cause MAX confusion for the mainstream.
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time for some sun.... back soon.
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10.40am.. provisional floor from sp'1891... but I'd agree.. it sure is pushing it for those still looking for upside to around 2K.
Good morning. US equity futures are significantly lower, sp -18pts, we're set to open at 1903. The USD is +0.4% in the DXY 97.80s. Metals are catching an obvious fear bid, Gold +$10. Oil is continuing to implode, -3.3% around the $30 threshold.
sp'60min
Summary
So... we're set to open around the 1900 threshold, and that is pretty important.
No doubt, Oil is a key market pressure... and last evening's API report (7 million build) was not good for the bulls.... the EIA is due at 10.30am this morning.
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Best guess: market rallies after a morning low (typically around 11am), and pushes upward into end week and across early March.
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early movers...
CHK +14% @ $2.50
GDX +2.2%... as Gold continues to rally
TVIX +8% in the $8.80s.. as VIX is set for 22s
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Update from Mr C.
Who is effectively calling a short term top, with a straight move to around sp'1700.
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Doomer chat, Hunter with Snyder of 'economic collapse blog'.
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Overnight action
Japan: choppy, settling -0.8% @ 15915
China: climbing into the close, +0.8% @ 2928
Germany: currently -2.3% @ 9198
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RE: Gold, GLD, daily
As even Oscar notes, the recent Gold ramp from December is not for no reason. 'Something' is going on. Price structure is indeed a bullish pennant, with the big gap already filled. I'd be surprised if Gold doesn't first retrace to the red zone... equating to Gold $1180/70.
First big upside target for Gold is the $1300 threshold... which would be GLD $125s... around 6% higher.
If Gold can reach the $1400s.. or certainly the 1500s this spring/summer - as equities implode, then it would clarify that Dec'2015 was the long awaited multi-year low.
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Have a good Wednesday
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9.35am.. sp'1899.. with VIX 22s.
Certainly... not pretty.. but overall market mood.. still isn't that bearish.
*Cramer talking that Dimon of JPM might need to 'average down'..... lol
Whilst US equities saw broad weakness, with the sp -24pts @ 1921, there continues to be some interesting currency moves. The USD unquestionably remains king of FIAT land, not least as the ECB and BoJ continue to print toward oblivion, with the GBP highly vulnerable to breaking the low of Jan'2009.
USD' monthly
Euro, weekly, 7yr
Summary
USD: despite what the 'dollar doomers' continue to proclaim - as some have done for over a decade, the USD looks set to remain the reserve currency of the world for years to come. The EU and Japanese economies look far weaker relative to the USA, and that only bodes bullish for the USD
Euro: much like the Japanese Yen, Chinese Yuan, and British Pound, the Euro looks highly vulnerable to further depreciation against the USD in the months ahead.
Key support for the Euro/$ is the March 2015 low of 1.0463. Parity against the USD looks a given.. it just seems to be a case of whether this year... or next.
There is absolutely massive resistance around 1.19/1.20. Under no reasonable outlook does sustained action in the 120s look possible.
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What about the British Pound?
With PM Cameron recently announcing a referendum (Thurs' June 23rd 2016) to determine if the UK is to remain within the EU, the GBP continues to weaken.
Do I think the UK voters will see a majority vote to exit the EU ?
No. Despite increasing unrest, the UK populace still seem some considerable way from the point where a majority want to further distance themselves from mainland Europe.
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**The following chart does not include today's net change, as stockcharts don't update the GBP until the 12pm EST the next day.
GBP/USD, monthly, 20yr
What should be clear... the GBP has already massively cooled against the USD... and is now a mere 600bps away from breaking the Jan'2009 low of 1.3500. Under 1.3500, there really isn't much until.... parity.
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Market/econ chatter from Schiff
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Looking ahead
Wednesday will see PMI serv' , new home sales, and the latest EIA report.
*there are 3 fed officials on the loose, notably Bullard, but he is due after the close.
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US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -24pts @ 1921. The two leaders
- Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.3% and -0.9% respectively. Near term
outlook threatens the 1905/00 zone, but with broader upside to the
1950/60s. The real issue remains whether the market will be able to claw
to around 2K by mid March.
sp'daily
Dow
Trans
Summary
sp'500 - most realistic best bull case is the 2000 threshold. There is a small gap around 2040, but that looks seriously difficult.. even if the bulls managed to hold things together into late March.
Dow - first key resistance is the 17K threshold
Trans - the 200dma in the 7800s looks viable by mid March.
