With US equity indexes breaking a new cycle high of sp'2009, the VIX broke a new cycle low of 16.05, but settling +1.0% @ 16.86. Near term outlook threatens further equity upside to the 2020/40 zone, which might equate to VIX briefly in the 15/14s.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
VIX'weekly
Summary
*a significant net weekly decline of -14.9%
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A third consecutive net weekly decline in volatility, with the VIX having been almost cut in half since the Feb'11th high of 30.90 (with sp'1810).
It would seem VIX will remain broadly subdued for another week, before a claw back into the 20s.. post-FOMC.
Right now, the 25/30 zone looks probable by mid April, with hyper-upside more viable in late April/early May.
US equity indexes closed higher for a fourth consecutive day, sp +6pts @ 1999 (intra high 2009). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, setled higher by 0.6% and 0.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers the 2020/40 zone by the FOMC of March 16th. From there, the market should see a critical rollover, and implode to at least the 1600s by June.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: micro chop, but leaning on the upside.
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So, a fourth day to the upside, making for the third net weekly gain.
Sustained action <1970 looks out of range in the near term, and indeed, we could easily be trading 2015/25 by next Wednesday.
The ECB will be a clear threat to the equity bulls, but still.. there will still be threat of further upside to the gap zone of 2038/43 when the FOMC announcement is made at 2pm on March 16th.
From there... I should be hitting buttons. Big ones.
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Clown finance TV were asking a guest which will come first: 16k or 18k
The correct question should have been 'what will we see first 14/13k or 18k?'
Whilst US equity indexes are set to close moderately higher, there remains notable price action in Seadrill (SDRL), which is seeing outright insane price action. SDRL opened at $3.21, soared to $7.49, but is now in extreme cool down mode, back in the 5s.... with a serious gap fill threat of the $3s early next week!
SDRL, 5min
sp'daily
Summary
*forgive my particular interest in SDRL, besides the fact its in a sector I'm really interested in, its just a great example of how crazy hysterical the bulls can get.
Note the spiky top candle around 1.55pm... and then the 5min MACD turned bearish around 2.10pm.
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**My last SDRL trade was on the long side, having exited in summer 2014, when it was trading in the 37/39s. Much the same for RIG.
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Regardless of the exact close, it has been a third week for the bull maniacs, and we sure have seen some hysterical price moves today in the junk. We're unquestionably real close to bearish capitulation.
Perhaps.. we should merely wait for the infamous Gartman to tout 'new bull market well underway'.
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3.21pm.. notable reversal in Gold/miners
GDX, daily2
Hmmmmmm.. that sure is a spiky top. I'd like the mid 17s. within 8 trading days.
Whilst the broader market is battling to build moderate gains, there is notable bullish hysteria in a number of those stocks that remain set to disappear, but for now... 'everything is fine again'. No doubt many of the naked shorts are having to cover at 'any price'... and some chasers are appearing to push things even higher.
SDRL, daily
CHK, daily
FCX, daily
Summary
*note how all three are fast approaching their respective 200dma.... broadly in sync' with the sp'500.
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A few weeks ago, most would have considered all three companies on their death bed.
... but they are all considered 'fine', at least for now.
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No doubt... the retail amateurs chasing these crazy stocks are going to get burnt... its just a matter of how many weeks until they re-implode.. toward zero.
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2.16pm.. SDRL, 5min
That spiky candle around 2pm.. has already resulted in a massive swing from mid 7s to the 5s.
US equities are increasingly seeing micro chop, with the sp'500 around 2K, and Dow 17K. Clearly, we're arguably no more than 1-2% from what should complete a rather natural bounce from the Feb'11th low of sp'1810. VIX remains naturally subdued, stuck in the 16s.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
8 trading days until the FOMC.. at which point we should have maxed out.
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notable strength: SDRL, daily
The junk continues to soar, after all, everything is fixed now, yes?
With the equity bears remaining powerless, equities have managed to build moderate gains, with the sp'500 back over the giant psy' level of 2K. The next level of resistance is the 200dma...currently in the 2020s, which is clearly viable next week.
sp'daily
Summary
Little to add.
Currently higher for the fourth consecutive day, but we're set for increasingly subdued chop into the week
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notable strength, TSLA, daily
The $200 threshold has already been hit, next soft target is the 220/225 zone, which is clearly viable by mid March.
After some moderate swings, US equities are a little higher. The only issue for today is whether we'll see a weekly close a little above... or a little below the sp'2K threshold. Considering the bigger weekly cycles, it will more likely be the latter.
sp'weekly1b
Summary
*note the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle, set for a bullish cross at next Monday's open.
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Little to add.
With the jobs data out of the way, the bulls have an open window into late Wednesday... with Draghi/ECB on Thursday.
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Here in London city...
Very reasonable indeed :)
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*bonus chart*..
GLD, daily
Gold is again threatening a reversal... and it is sure due a retrace.
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US equity indexes break a new cycle high of sp'1996. Early price action is moderately twitchy, but equity bears still look powerless, as underlying price momentum continues to swing toward the bulls. For now, there is little reason to expect any hope of sustained downside until after the FOMC of March 16th.
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
*the action in the precious metals and related mining stocks is pretty dynamic.. having seen a couple of fierce swings in pre-market. Cyclically, the metals/miners are absolutely over-extended, and I have no tolerance for getting involved (long side) with that kind of cyclical setup.
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As for equities, we're set for a third consecutive week of gains, and the sp'2020/40 zone is clearly within range next week. The next threat to the bulls will be Draghi at next Thursday's ECB.
To be clear.... I do not expect any price action <sp'1970 until after the FOMC.
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notable strength... SDRL, daily
Again, the junk/trash/crap, are seeing sig' gains. After all, the floor is in for 2016, right?
Good morning. US equity futures are a little higher (ahead of the jobs data), sp +4pts, we're set to open at 1997. USD is u/c in the DXY 97.50s. Metals continue to climb, Gold +$4. Oil is +0.3% in the $34s.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add... lets see how the market reacts to the next jobs data, due at 8.30am EST.
It was another day for the equity bulls, with a new cycle high of sp'1993, and VIX hitting the low 16s. It still seems entirely natural for the market to have the better part of a further two weeks of upside to the 2020/40 zone, before the current multi-week up wave concludes.
sp'weekly1b
sp'weekly8f
Summary
We're set for a third consecutive net weekly gain, having climbed from sp'1810.
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re: weekly8f: I realise many will disagree, and suggest we are earlier in the 2007/08 pattern than what I believe.
However, what most should agree on, we are forming a series of lower highs and lower lows, since the May 2015 peak of sp'2134.
For me, a March close above the 10MA (currently @ 2012) would negate the broader bearish outlook.
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Looking ahead
Friday will see the latest monthly jobs data. Market is expecting net job gains of 190k, with a static headline jobless rate of 4.9%. That does not seem overly optimistic. Arguably, a number in the 200/225k range would be seen as 'Goldilocks'.
US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +6pts @ 1993. The two
leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.1% and 1.0% respectively. Near
term outlook offers the sp'2K threshold for 'jobs Friday', with the
2020/40 zone viable by the next FOMC of March 16th.
sp'daily5
Dow
Summary
Suffice to add, a third consecutive day for the equity bulls... with the bears seemingly powerless.
Regardless of whatever number the BLS publish tomorrow morning, US equities look set to battle higher for another 9 trading days.
A key turn at the next FOMC of March 16th would be rather natural.
