Friday 15 February 2013

Volatility falls into the long weekend

With the indexes recovering from an afternoon micro decline, the VIX failed to hold fractional gains, closing -1.6% @ 12.46. The VIX even marginally broke below the January lows, hitting 12.24. It remains an incredibly fearless market.





A pretty quiet week in the equity market, and the VIX merely melted lower, slipping 4% across the week.

Are VIX 11s due next week? If the sp' breaks into the 1530/40s, you'd have to think we will indeed see VIX 11, perhaps even 10.

Which brings me back to the April/May outlook for Sp'1600s, where we'll probably see VIX..single digits, which would be one of the ultimate achievements for the bull maniacs since the spring 2009 lows.

A little more later...on the indexes.

Closing Brief

Aside from a very brief touch of drama in mid afternoon - lead by WMT (or was it the rock?), it was a pretty quiet end to a quiet week. VIX is back in the 12s....there is still nothing for the bears to get excited about.



Market even managed to still close within the near term there is absolutely nothing bearish yet. There is massive rising support in the 1485/90 range early next would seem very unlikely we can break below that.

Indeed, sp'1600s still look very reasonable as a target for March/April.

We are closed on have a super good..long weekend!

*next main posting, late Saturday, on the weekly US indexes.

3pm update - a touch of minor drama

A minor snap lower..oohh the drama! Did the giant rock hit yet? Is this indeed bullish? Equities sitting on soft support. Bears need a break <1512, with VIX back in the 13s. Metals remain..distressed.




VIX is marginally interesting, but until I see the 15s, it really all noise. It could jump 10%, but as we've seen lately, such moves don't sustain themselves for more than a few hours.

back after the close..barring surprises

2pm update - afternoon melt

Once again the latter day recovery is in effect, with the indexes fractionally green. Metals - and Oil, remain significantly lower. The latter of which might be suggestive of equity weakness when the market opens on Tuesday. Dollar is a touch higher..further pressuring those shiny things.




Gold and Silver both feeling the pain this week with heavy falls. I'd guess there is still another few days until it levels out, at least in the short term.

What remains the big issue is when will the next multi-month ramp start? March could be a major turn.

*RIG, not sure why its -5%. Its had a great run recently, broader trend should remain upward, regardless of any follow through next week.

Metal bugs running for cover?

back after the close.

12pm update - metals market...rocked

A somewhat rough end to the week for the precious metals market. Gold breaks <1600, and SIlver <30. Big psy' levels for some, but really, they have been trending lower for over six months anyway. Meanwhile..equities showing a touch of weakness into the early afternoon.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily


Frankly, I'm more interested in those space rocks than this nonsense. I do find it highly amusing though, seeing the gold bugs getting rattled.

Even I saw this down wave coming.

Silver commentary...Mr H.


As for equities, I really don't expect much action this afternoon, we have a 3 day weekend ahead, who wants to be trading ahead of that? I didn't think so.

time for lunch ! necessary... (as ever!)

10am update - space rocks, bullish construction sector?

Good morning. I awaken to find the world still here, despite large rock/s causing some havoc in Russia . Meanwhile, Mr Market is likely to trade quietly ahead of a long 3 day weekend. I don't expect of today. Metals are getting the hammer again.


GLD, daily


Hmm, not much to say right now. Indexes largely flat, has been the case all week, metals are the one place for dynamic price action.

Get to da bunker!

back later

The red candle that never comes

With the 'old leader' - Transports, hitting another historic high today, the primary trend remains starkly higher. There is no sign of a turn, it is a market of incredible underlying strength, one that looks set to continue for some months to come.

sp'monthly3d - red candle

trans, monthly


*I'm updating some of the bigger charts. Ohh, and yes, I'm sure as hell keeping them 'simple'. I see no point in adding 10,000 support/resistance so many others do. That makes it overly cluttered, and simple is best, right?

The elusive red candle

Sure, we might get a little late spring/early summer correction - very much in the style we've seen in the previous few years.

As noted yesterday, say we get to the sp'1600s.. bulls could easily sustain a 100-150pt fall in the sp'500, without doing ANY damage to the primary trend.

Perhaps we'll see an initial sign of weakness in April, with a closing blue candle, and then May/June with the 'moderate' correction.

With the central banks seemingly likely to ramp up the rate of printing as the year progresses - not least the BoE  as it props up the basket-case that is the UK, its very likely we'll see most asset classes continue to ramp higher.

SP'1800s by year end... are at least to be....considered.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

Another typical day in market land. Opening minor declines - after lousy EU econ-data, but the usual latter day recovery negated those declines, and some indexes again made new historic highs. It remains a powerfully strong market, fuelled (at least partly) the Feds (QE) POMO program.





So, new highs for the Transports..and the Rus'2000.

Its almost a little surprising that the indexes didn't break into the sp'1530s, but then, the morning econ-data from the EU was very recessionary, and so that didn't exactly help to inspire a super bullish open.

Yet, as usual, those minor declines simple can't last. The bears are laughably powerless, and seeing some of the indexes hit new highs was somewhat a darkly comical sense.

What is clear, absolutely NO sign of a turn lower..quite the contrary.

Friday is opex..and the lead into a 3 day weekend (yes, we're closed next Monday), so there is no reason why we can't just melt a little higher into the long weekend.

A little more later