VIX climbs into year end

With equities closing the year on a rather bearish note, the VIX battled moderately upward, settling +5.3% @ 18.21. The bigger equity picture is increasingly bearish, and regardless of any equity upside in early January, the broader picture favours upside action in the VIX.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*a net weekly gain of a very significant 15.7%
-

It is notable that today was the fourth net daily gain of the past five days.

The highest print of the day was 20.39, but I am dismissing it on the notion of it being a 'rogue print'.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed the year on a pretty bearish note, sp -19pts @ 2043. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.4% and -1.2% respectively. The year end close for five of six US indexes was below the monthly 10MA, and that sure bodes in favour of the bears for early 2016.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: renewed weakness, with a distinct case of some of the 'rats selling into the long holiday weekend'.
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I have a lot to say to wrap up the week, month, and year.. but will save that for later posts.

Suffice to say...

It has been a tough and frustrating year for many, but all those who have made it through the year deserve a prize. I'll leave it to each of you, what you think you deserve.

I want to say thanks to all those who have messaged me this year, whether via Disqus, email, or twitter.

I hope to be here across 2016... and beyond.

--
the usual bits and pieces across the evening.. to wrap up the day.. and year :)

3pm update - the closing hour of 2015

US equities have seen a clear fail to turn positive, with another wave lower, back to around sp'2050. A year end close below the monthly 10MA (2052) would necessitate alarm bells in even the most bullish of bull maniacs. Metals are back to flat, whilst Oil is cooling from earlier highs, currently +1.2%


sp'60min

AAPL, daily

Summary

*AAPL is warning of trouble.. much in the same manner as INTC was in mid-May.
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We have a VERY important closing hour ahead.  Eyes on the VIX, which with renewed equity weakness, is +5% in the 18s. Clearly nothing significant, but it sure isn't in the low teens as seemed likely just a few days ago.

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...updates into the close... (what else would I be doing?)


3.03pm.. as things stand... we have sig' bearish closes in the Trans, R2K, NYSE comp'

sp'500 is currently moderately under 10MA.    Dow/Nasdaq still moderately above.

On balance... it is NOT something that should inspire the bulls.... as also reflected in most other world markets.
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3.13pm.. VIX spikes powerfully higher... +17% in the 20.40s.

Rogue print... or indicative of something?
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3.26pm.... VIX flashes back to the 18s.... end year kooky action.

Price pressure in equities remains broadly weak, sp -14pts @ 2049...

Ironically, notable strength: TWTR +4.4% in the $23s...
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3.34pm.. In more serious news... I'm not going to win $1000 from Danny Riley.... I'm 40pts shy of my end year target of ES 2080 (aka.. sp'2090). 

sp -11pts @ 2051.....
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3.46pm.. Darth Lucas speaketh

So.. his imperialness is trying to retract calling Disney as being the white slavers.

The real issue.. what would Boba Fett call Bob Igor?
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3.50pm.. sp -14pts @ 2049. Looks like we'll get that monthly close for one of the three headline indexes.

2pm update - the battle continues

With just two trading hours left of the year, the US equity market is seeing a rather fierce battle to keep the sp'500 net positive for 2015. The bigger issue is whether we'll see close aboev or below the monthly 10MA of 2052... right now.. that does look probable.


sp'60min

sp'monthly1b

Summary

As attention is somewhat focused on a fiery tall hotel in Dubai (live independent coverage - HERE), the real story remains whether the sp'500 will close above.. or below 2052.

From a pure cyclical perspective, the hourly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is ticking upward, as price pressure starts to swing away from the equity bears.

Clearly, the rest of the afternoon is going to see some end week/month/year trades starting to fly through.. so I'd expect price action to get a little more active.
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notable weakness, AAPL, -1.7% in the $105s. For the equity bears out there, AAPL is now warning of broader market trouble.. much as INTC did in mid May.

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2.38pm... another wave lower.. and we're back under sp'2050.

It sure is getting interesting.

AAPL continues to lead the way lower, -2.1% in the $104s.

1pm update - desperately clawing higher

US equity indexes are battling to turn positive, having seen a morning low of sp'2046. The yearly close remains very important, equity bulls should remain in prayer mode... seeking continued recovery to the 2060/70s. Oil has seen a rather powerful reversal, swinging from -1%, currently +2.1% in the $37s.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

Many of the daily candles are currently of the hollow-red 'reversal' type. Still... we've three hours left.. and that is plenty of time.

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notable weakness...

AAPL, daily

The bear flag has already started to play out.. and were this the only stock I watched, I'd be real spooked.
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stay tuned!

12pm update - Chicago PMI is trending

US equities remain moderately weak, with a few aspects of support in the sp'2044/38 zone. Meanwhile, it is rather surprising to see that the latest Chicago PMI number is trending on Twitter. Without question, the 42.9 print is a truly lousy number, and it bodes badly for the econ-bulls in Q1.

An econ-data print makes it to the mainstream

sp'60min

Summary

Of all the things to see trending on Twitter, I'd never have expected to see Chicago PMI be one of them.

Considering there is a lot of chatter today for New Years Eve/day, it is very surprising to see an economic data print make it to the top ten.
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As for equities.. we'll see a clear attempt to claw back out of the danger zone.. and I can't be the only one who realises how important the sp'2050s are.

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VIX update from Mr T.


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time for lunch

11am update - 2052 is the dividing line

US equities continue to cool, with the sp' -14pts @ 2048. Those equity bulls seeking renewed upside in early 2016 should be starting to worry. A monthly/2015 close under the monthly 10MA would be a rather serious failure, and confirm what the Transports has been warning about for many... many months.


sp'monthly1b

spmonthly3, rainbow

Summary

*note the green candle on the monthly 'rainbow' chart.. it becomes blue @ 2047.

Frankly, its a far more important close than most realise... at least from a technical/chart perspective.

The Chicago PMI print of 42.9 that is rattling in my thoughts.. it really should concern the mainstream, but for now... they don't really seem to much care. Perhaps they'll care with the Q4 GDP data in late Jan'.

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Meanwhile... here in London city....

The sun sets on 2015

Somewhat bearish skies

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time to cook !

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open weak, with the sp' -11pts @ 2051. Most notably, the sp'500 is trading back under the monthly 10MA, if there isn't a latter day recovery today.. some of the bears can justifiably start sounding alarm bells. Metals are choppy, Gold +$2. Oil is trying to rebound, -0.7% in the $36s.


sp'60min

sp'monthly1b

Summary

**Chicago PMI: 42.9.    VERY recessionary... and another lousy number for the econ-bulls. This is indeed indicative that Q4 GDP will likely be pretty weak, in the 0.5-1.0% range.

Would the mainstream get spooked with a negative number... and then start to ask 'how could Yellen have raised rates'
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Meanwhile, it remains amusing to see the cheerleaders on clown finance TV get increasingly twitchy about whether the sp'500 settles above or below 2058.

Were I there, I'd merely tell them to cease their nonsense chatter.. and go stare at the Transports for an hour, but few of them want to reflect on what the 'old leader' index is warning them of.
-

As things are... I'm guessing we'll see a rebound into the yearly close, but things sure don't look so great right now.

time for some sun, and to shop.. back soon!

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately lower, sp -6pts, we're set to open at 2057. USD is climbing into year end, +0.2% in the DXY 98.40s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$2. Oil is -1.0% in the low $36s.


sp'60mn

Summary

So.. the gap zone is set to be fully filled at the open.

Equity bulls need a Thursday close >2058 for a fractional net yearly gain.

Best guess... after opening weak... market should rebound, and close net higher. Considering it is holiday trading conditions, anything much above 2080 looks difficult.
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*it would seem Japan and Germany didn't even trade this New Years Eve, so we already have a few year end closes.
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... awaiting weekly jobs and Chicago PMI data.
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9.31am.. sp'2051... we're back under the monthly 10MA....   if it stays there.... alarm bells will sound.

One day left of a messy year

There is just one trading day left of 2015, and regardless of the exact close, it has been a pretty messy year. The sp'500 has largely traded within the 2000/2100 zone, with a brief venture to a new historic high of 2134, then imploding to the Aug' low of 1867, before clawing back into the 2000/2100 zone.


sp'monthly1b

Trans, monthly2

Summary

*Transports remain a literal train wreck, holding a consistent downward trend since peaking at  9310 in Nov'2014.

The 'old leader' continues to warn of trouble in the broader market, as the 10MA (8150) is holding as powerful resistance.
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As things are, the sp'500 is set to attain a third consecutive monthly close above the key 10MA. Certainly, its been a bit of a struggle, but for now, there is little reason to get bearish in the immediate term.

Again though, other world markets are equally important, and most of them aren't looking so pretty.
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Looking ahead

Thursday will see the latest weekly jobs. Far more important though, the Chicago PMI. Market is expecting a borderline recessionary 50.0 print. Any outcome in the 51/49 zone should not inspire the econ-bulls.

*It will be a FULL day of trading in equity land, with a normal close at 4pm EST.
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Submit YOUR outlook for 2016

Don't forget to submit your best guess/comments for what might be ahead next year.

See HERE for full details.

--
Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, sp -15pts @ 2063 (intra low 2061). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.1% and -0.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers a Thursday/year end close around 2090, with the 2100s viable next week.


sp'daily5

Dow

Summary

Suffice to add, not a great day for the bulls, but then.. neither was there any real sell side power/volume behind the daily declines.

There is a clear price gap of sp'2060/56.. and Mr Market came within 1pt of hitting that in the closing hour.

Near term outlook: viable early Thursday morning weakness... before resuming upward, with first target at next resistance of 2090.
-

re: Dow. The 18K threshold remains powerful resistance, and those equity bulls seeking broad gains in 2016 are going to need to see a few weekly closes back above 18K.. and HOLD above.

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a little more later..

VIX a little higher

With equity indexes closing moderately weak, the VIX was naturally on the rise, settling +7.5% @ 17.29. Near term outlook offers a year end close around sp'2090, and that would likely equate to VIX in the 14s. The big 20 threshold looks out of range until at least the latter half of January.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add.

With equities likely to rise (at least) during the first half of January, the VIX is equally likely to remain broadly subdued.

--
more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, sp -15pts @ 2063 (intra low 2061). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.1% and -0.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers a Thursday/year end close around 2090, with the 2100s viable next week.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: a micro wave lower, breaking a new intra low of 2061.. but not quite filling the upper end of the price gap zone. Maybe early tomorrow morning?
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Suffice to add... a naturally quiet day... with just one trading day left of the year.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - clawing into the close

US equities are set to close moderately weak, but with the 5/15/60min cycles all inclined for a touch of upside into the close. A year end close around 2090 remains within range. Metals are weak, Gold -$6, with Silver -0.4%. Oil has been completely unable to rally, -3.2% in the $36s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

The micro cycles are indeed offering a touch of natural upside into the close, but still.. we'll likely close net lower on the day.

*I'm aware of a few who are seeking some kind of New Years eve sell off, but really.. price action remains relatively subdued.

Considering the bigger daily/weekly cycles, the market is more inclined to push upward.
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*keep sending those 2016 predictions in.    see: HERE

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3.39pm...  and a micro snap lower.. to a new low of sp'2065.

So.. the gap zone looks like it will be filled after all.

Hmm... a daily close in the 2060s will make 2090 difficult tomorrow. The only data of note is Chicago PMI, and that isn't likely to come in much above 50.

2pm update - trying to build a floor

US equity indexes are trying to build a floor from a low of sp'2069. The hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly cycles are all offering 2090 for the yearly close. VIX remains relatively subdued, +4% in the 16s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$7, with Silver -0.5%. Oil is notably weak, -3.1% in the $36s.


sp'daily5

sp'weekly1b

Summary

Seen on the bigger daily/weekly charts, there is clear resistance around 2090. It will take some significant new years buying to break the market into the 2100s, but it does look due.
-

notable strength: CBRL +0.4% in the $126s

TSLA +1.5%

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back at 3pm

1pm update - continued weak chop

US equities remain moderately weak, but as is usually the case, there is high threat of a latter day recovery. A Thursday/2015 close at sp'2090 remains within range, along with VIX 14/13s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$7, with Silver -0.5% in the $13s. Oil breaks new intra lows, -3.5%.


sp'60min

Summary

*note the upper bollinger on the hourly cycle will be offering 2090 by today's close and across tomorrow
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Little to add.

It is merely just a matter of how many hours until we break back into the 2080s.. and onward to next resistance around 2090. The 2100s look due next week.

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Meanwhile.... on clown finance TV

Najerian, J. likes CBRL for 2016

CBRL, daily

As noted earlier, it looks far more vulnerable to the upside, than breaking the recent low of $123
-

back at 2pm

12pm update - no real downside power

US equities remain a little lower, but clearly, as its another holiday week, there really isn't any volume, and that will generally favour the bulls for another rebound. The sp'500 remains within range for a 2015 closing around 2090.. along with VIX 14s. Oil remains under strong downward pressure, -2.8% in the $36s.


sp'60min

USO, daily2

Summary

re: Oil is clearly keeping some downward pressure on the broader market. For now, Oil looks stuck in the 36/38 zone. At best.. upside to the $40 threshold. Sustained upside >40 looks difficult in Q1.
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Little to add, on what is a naturally quiet New Years Eve.... eve.

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VIX update from Mr T... getting it done !



--
time for tea

11am update - moderately weak

US equities are moderately weak, with the sp -6pts @ 2071. With the latest EIA report showing a net build of 2.6 million barrels, Oil is imploding, -3.0% in the $36s. The issue of over-supply remains entirely unresolved, and there is currently ZERO sign of industry capitulation.


sp'60min

Summary

Hmm, the gap zone of 2060/56 still looks out of range.

A day of weak chop... and Thursday will likely offer renewed upside. If we can at least close >2065.. my 2090 target remains in range.
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*I've always taken requests to highlight any given stock/commodity...

Poster 'brelsa' asked about Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)

CBRL, weekly, 2.5yr

The stock has had a real problem since making a marginal new historic high in July ($156.99). Aug' saw it flash-crash to $117.06... with a lower high of $151 in Sept'.

Since then..  broad weakness to this morning @ $125. There is clearly some significant support in the 126/123 zone though... and unless that breaks, CBRL looks more vulnerable to upside.. than downside.
-

As a company.. income/balance sheet look good (cash/debt ratio look okay), gross/net profit margins are within industry standard... 6% net. That sure isn't much, but then.. thats the highly competitive restaurant trade.

see HERE for a basic overview.

Best guess...renewed upside to 135/140 zone in Q1. 

It should be clear though, for sustained >140.. we'll need sp'2200s.. and beyond. 

Low fuel prices look set to continue across 2016, and that will no doubt help ALL retail/food outlets.

Broadly.. CBRL looks a fine company, although I can't say anything about the food, as there are no Cracker Barrels in the UK.
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time for lunch, back at 12pm

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open moderately lower, with a clear lower gap of sp'2060/56, but considering holiday trading conditions and recent price action, that looks out of range. Metals are weak, Gold -$7, with Silver -0.7% in the $13s. Oil is -2.6% ahead of the EIA report.


sp'60min

GLD, daily

Summary

*the year is not ending well for the gold bugs. I can't see Mr Market not taking Gold to the giant $1000 threshold.. and probably headed for the 900/875 zone by summer 2016.

Naturally, the related mining stocks are having issues. GDX -2.3%.
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So.. we're a little lower, but really.. today is set to be mostly choppy.

A Thursday/2015 close around 2090 remains valid.
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notable weakness...

AAPL, daily

Price structure is a clear bear flag. Were that to play out... then alarm bells should ring out. From a pure cyclical perspective though, we're still due another attempt to clear the 200dma around $120.
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I'm cold .. and I think its time to cook.

*back for the oil report at 10.30am
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10.31am   2.6 million barrel oil surplus.. .  Oil is -3.4% in the $36s.

Clearly.. that is denting the equity market, with sp -8pts @ 2069.

Pre-Market Brief

US equity futures are a little lower, sp -3pts, we're set to open at 2075. USD is +0.2% in the DXY 98.30. Metals remain broadly weak, Gold -$3. Oil is back on the slide, -2.6% in the $36s, ahead of the latest EIA report.


sp'60min

Summary

So...a little weakness to start the day is due... but things remain broadly on track.

Best guess remains: Thursday/yearly close @ sp'2090. The 2100s look more viable next week.
-

Overnight Asia action

Japan: +0.3% @ 19033
China: +0.3% @ 3572

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Have a good Wednesday

Other world equity markets are not so pretty

Whilst some might have become rather bullish - as the sp'2100s look due, it remains the case that on a global scale, most world equity markets are still struggling. Unless the majority of markets can re-take the monthly 10MA within the next few months... there is trouble ahead.


Lets take a brief look at a few of the key world markets...

Germany, DAX

Japan, Nikkei

China, Shanghai comp'

Summary

*I will cover the monthly/yearly closing in the world equity markets this coming weekend.
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Suffice to add, the current situation should concern the longer term bulls. Despite a third consecutive net monthly gain, even the China market remains stuck under the 10MA (3700s).

Those seeking a major market upset in the US in the first half of 2016 should be seeking a reversal/spiky-top candle for the SSEC in Jan/Feb... with no monthly closes >3800.
--

Looking ahead

Wed' will see Pending home sales, and the latest EIA oil report.
--


Submit YOUR outlook for 2016

Don't forget to submit your best guess/comments for what might be ahead next year.

See HERE for full details.
--

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +21pts @ 2078 (intra high 2081). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 1.0% respectively. Near term outlook is for a year end closing around sp'2090, with marginal new historic highs for the Dow, sp', and Nasdaq in Jan/Feb'.


sp'daily5

Nasdaq comp'

Summary

Little to add.

It is notable that the 'headline indexes' - Dow, sp'500, and Nasdaq' all look on track for marginal new historic highs in January 2016.

Whether the market can hold such new highs... that is the core issue.

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a little more later...

VIX resumes cooling mode

With equity indexes closing significantly higher, the VIX was naturally back in cooling mode, settling -4.9% @ 16.08. The near term outlook offers sp'2090 by the Thursday/2015 close, and that will likely equate to VIX in the 14/13s. The 20 threshold looks out of range until at least late January.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to add, VIX looks set to remain subdued in the remaining two trading days of 2015, and probably the first 2-3 weeks of 2016.

*I have ZERO interest in being long the VIX in the near term.
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more later... on the indexes