Thursday, 31 December 2015

One day left of a messy year

There is just one trading day left of 2015, and regardless of the exact close, it has been a pretty messy year. The sp'500 has largely traded within the 2000/2100 zone, with a brief venture to a new historic high of 2134, then imploding to the Aug' low of 1867, before clawing back into the 2000/2100 zone.


sp'monthly1b



Trans, monthly2



Summary

*Transports remain a literal train wreck, holding a consistent downward trend since peaking at  9310 in Nov'2014.

The 'old leader' continues to warn of trouble in the broader market, as the 10MA (8150) is holding as powerful resistance.
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As things are, the sp'500 is set to attain a third consecutive monthly close above the key 10MA. Certainly, its been a bit of a struggle, but for now, there is little reason to get bearish in the immediate term.

Again though, other world markets are equally important, and most of them aren't looking so pretty.
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Looking ahead

Thursday will see the latest weekly jobs. Far more important though, the Chicago PMI. Market is expecting a borderline recessionary 50.0 print. Any outcome in the 51/49 zone should not inspire the econ-bulls.

*It will be a FULL day of trading in equity land, with a normal close at 4pm EST.
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Submit YOUR outlook for 2016

Don't forget to submit your best guess/comments for what might be ahead next year.

See HERE for full details.

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Goodnight from London