Friday, 1 April 2016

VIX unable to hold early gains

US equities opened lower to sp'2043, and that resulted in the VIX spiking to 15.28, but with a swift equity recovery to a new cycle high of 2075, the VIX reversed (intra low 13.00), settling -6.1% @ 13.10. Across the week, VIX saw a sig' net weekly decline of -11.1%.





*the opening black-fail candle was yet another early warning that equities were liable to reverse higher, although I sure did not expect them to reverse to new cycle highs.

Suffice to add, with equity prices melting upward into the close, the VIX itself melted lower into the weekend.

Sustained VIX action above the key 20 threshold looks unlikely until the latter half of April. Hyper VIX upside to the 30s, 40s, or even beyond, look entirely out of range until May.

*I remain long the VIX - via TVIX, and despite a disappointing end to the week, my own consolation is that I only need VIX 16/17s for a profitable exit.

more later... on the indexes