Friday, 1 April 2016

1pm update - interesting afternoon ahead

US equities are moderately choppy, and despite the recovery from sp'2043 to 2065, there remains threat of latter day weakness, not least as Oil has been entirely unable to rally, currently -3.3% in the $37s.  




As things stand, equity bears need a daily close <2050 to break trend, with VIX >14.75. That is not an overly bold target.

So... lets see if some of the bull-rats start exiting into the weekend.

notable weakness: Ford (F), daily

Ford is one ugly chart. Its been utterly unable to break into the $14s. If the main market does roll lower into the summer, Ford will be 11/10$ stock. The bigger monthly cycle is more suggestive of support in the $8s, but that is of course a long way down.