Friday, 1 April 2016

10am update - down is UP, up is DOWN

US equities open broadly lower (ohh the humanity!), with the sp'500 already in the 2040s. Hourly equity/VIX cycles are offering sp'2040/35 with VIX 15s. Metals are under strong downward pressure, Gold -$13, with Silver -2.8%. Oil is having serious problems, -3.3% in the $37s.

sp'60min - A1

VIX'60min - A1


*opening black-fail candle in the VIX... threatening a bounce.. before renewed downside. In any case, we do have a break of trend in the VIX.

sp'500 has so far bounced off trend.. but still.. the 2030s look a pretty easy target.. whether late today, or early next week.

.. and April has begun.... in favour of the equity bears.

This morning's jobs data was arguably the last best chance for the equity bulls to break the late Dec'2015 high of sp'2081.

Clearly, there is still threat of renewed upside, but there sure are a lot of negative issues this morning.

A sig' daily decline in the 2030s, with VIX 16s now looks viable.. and that sets up 2020/15 - with VIX 18/19s next Mon/Tuesday.

*for the moment, I'm trying to be patient, although with the weekend ahead, I'm somewhat inclined to drop my SPY put block (if we get 2030s with VIX 16s)... but would still hold TVIX-long into next week.

time to shop... back soon!