Thursday, 1 October 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +10pts, we're set to open at 1930 (overnight high: 1940) . The USD is broadly flat in the DXY 96.50s. Gold -$3. Oil is +2.2%... back in the $46s.




For what its worth... welcome to October.

A new month, and no doubt the Oct' monthly price momentum will tick more in favour of the equity bears.

The immediate issue though... how high will the current nonsense go? We've now climbed from 1871 on Tuesday afternoon to 1930.... 59pts (3.0%).

Best case scenario right now for the bears... a Thursday net daily decline of 5/10pts.. with a 20/25pt fall tomorrow. That would offer a weekly close under 1900 and keep the near term trend bearish.

As it is.... I've LOW confidence in that... and instead fear a straight up run to the 200dma in the 2040/50s. That IS a real threat as we're clearly back to the 'bad news is good news' mantra.

*I remain short... but will look to exit tomorrow.. or next Monday at the latest. I simply can't hold beyond that... little point.

Overnight Asia action...

Japan: +1.9% @ 17722. It is notable that the Nikkei saw a net Sept' decline of -7.9%. The outlook for Oct' is NOT bullish.

China.... CLOSED until next week.

Have a good Thursday... if you can.

9.40am.. EXITED AAPL-short.. from $108.20.

... one down..

9.43am.. opening reversal in the broader market.. as also reflected in the VIX