Thursday, 1 October 2015

Bits and pieces to wrap up September

It was a second consecutive month for the equity bears, with the sp'500 net lower by -2.6% @ 1920.  Most world equity markets had another rough month, with the Shanghai comp' -4.8% @ 3052. The USD saw a moderate gain. Copper and Oil both remain within their deflationary paths.


The first pair of sig' net monthly declines since 2011. The mid term trend remains bearish... with viable upside to the 200dma (2050s).. along with the monthly 10MA (2047.. and falling). Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) continues to swing in favour of the equity bears.. and lower levels look probable in Oct/Nov.

China, monthly

The China market settled lower for the fourth consecutive month. Underlying MACD (green bar histogram) cycle continues to tick lower, and is set for a bearish cross at the Oct' 1st open. There remains high probability of further downside to the 2500/2000 zone before year end.

USD monthly3

A moderate net monthly gain of 0.6% @ DXY 96.45. It is notable we now have 6 blue candles... price structure is a giant bull flag. There is threat of downside to the 90 threshold before the next push higher >100, and then onward to the 120s.

Copper, monthly

A net monthly gain of 0.2%. Broadly.. Copper remains very weak, and a test of the $2.00 threshold seems probable.

WTIC, monthly2

A severe net monthly decline of -6.4% @ $45.09... as supply remains above demand. For now.. there is zero sign of a floor.. and sustained action in the $30s looks probable.

Update from Mr C.


Looking ahead

Thursday will see the weekly jobs, PMI/ISM manu', and construction

So much for day'10

Today was clearly a major disappointment. What was the markets excuse for a near 2% ramp? Was it mostly technicals, or is the market now seeing bad econ-data (I refer anyone to today's recessionary PMI number of 48.7) as good news again?

Tomorrow will be day'11 since the FOMC high, and frankly... on balance, it now looks like we have a marginally higher low of sp'1871. If that does hold, then next target is the daily 200MA and the monthly 10MA... in the sp'2040/50s.

I certainly can't hold short all the way up to the sp'2000s, and will endeavour to exit at the base of the next hourly down cycle. In theory.. that should be this Friday.. or certainly no later than next Monday.

Goodnight from London