Friday, 18 September 2015

Wild west trading

Fed days are notoriously messy for trading, and today was no exception, with the sp'500 pushing to a new cycle high of 2020, but settling -5pts @ 1990 (intra low 1986). Near term outlook offers further upside to the 2040s.. where the 50dma is lurking.




*a busy.. and tiresome day.. so this needs to be short!

Suffice to say.. we've come within 1% of my first big target of the 50dma around 2040.

To me, 2020 does not make much sense as a key high... the 2040/50s would be far more natural.

Update from Oscar

Yes, it was made before the Fed announcement, but there are some interesting issues in there, not least about Gold and Bonds.

Fed/Yellen chatter from Schiff

Interesting little rant from Schiff on today's lack of a rate hike.

Looking ahead

Friday will see leading indicators... but far more importantly.. it will be quad-opex. So.. expect increasing chop into the weekly close.

No trades... no losses

I generally try to avoid trading on 'Fed days', and today was no different.. although yes, I did have eyes on Oil for much of the day.

As things are, I remain looking to launch a major market short.. with a view to remain broadly short into mid Oct'. Right now...there looks to be 'easy money' for the bears from 2040 to the 1900 threshold. From there, it will get more risky once in the 1800s. There is a viable mini-crash window to the low 1700s... but first things first.. the market needs to clarify a top across the next few days.

Goodnight from London