Friday, 18 September 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -15pts, we're set to open at 1975.  Net weekly gains look probable for most indexes. USD remains weak, -0.4% in the DXY 94.10s. Metals continue to climb, Gold +$8. Oil is -0.4%, in the $46s




As at the Friday close, the market needs to hold sp'1960, to not violate the key rising trend/support. Right now, the market should be able to comfortably hold together... before one final push upward.

Best guess... a morning washout... a turn around 11am... and then recovering into the late afternoon. It is quad-opex.. so do expect some swings.

Overnight Asia action...

Japan:  Nikkei -2.0% @ 18060. A rather bearish end to the week

China: +0.4% @ 3097. There remains threat of a test of the underside of old broken support in the 3300/3500s.... before things unravel to the 2500/2000 zone.

End week doom chatter from Hunter


What am I doing?

I do not plan to get involved on the long side (even Oil) for the reminder of this cycle. Instead, I am merely waiting to find a level to short from. The 2040s still look briefly viable. So, as things are... I'll be on the sidelines across the weekend, but that is what I prefer anyway.

Have a good Friday.

7.31am.. sp -22pts.... 1968... and is getting pretty close to breaking rising support.

If support is broken, by default, I'll have to look to chase lower on the next 15/60min cycle bounce.

A rather important morning ahead.

7.46am... Peabody, 1 for 15 reverse split... taking the stock back to around $15.

Considering the mid term outlook for energy prices.... that arguably merely makes it an easier  stock to re-short, esp' via option puts.

sp -18pts... 1972.   I'd imagine the VIX will be +10% in the 23s at the open.

8.00am ,  sp -22.. 1968... and that remains a little close to rising support for comfort.

notable weakness:  TSLA, NFLX, both lower by -1.4%

AAPL, DIS, -0.9%... broadly following the main market.

9.05am.. sp -23pts... so that is 1967...

notable weakness: Oil, -2.8%.... and that is with a weak USD.  Gods help the energy stocks/main market once USD starts rising again.

9.07am... sp -25pts.. 1965.. . with Oil unravelling by the minute... -3.0%

9.12am.. sp -29pts... 1961... at the daily 10MA.

Frankly.. its increasingly looking like we have a cycle of 2020.. with VIX 17s.

Regardless.... I ain't chasing the lower open... we'll no doubt cycle up to some extent.

9.19am.. sp -33pts.. 1957... .. and that is about the very extreme bulls can manage without breaking core support.

Ugly open... with the irony being of course that this is after the Fed kept rates at zero.

9.34am.. With some 'magic'.. the market opens some 10pts higher than was due.

So.. for now... core trends HOLDING.

.. the fact it is quad-opex... further complicates things for those currently short.

VIX opens +11% in the 23s... broadly as expected.

... a  black-fail candle on the VIX looks due by 10am.   Bears... beware!

9.47am.. BLACK-fail candle on the VIX....   its only provisional.. but price action suggest market will be able to build a floor... and hold together into next week.