Friday, 18 September 2015

10am update - opening sharp declines

US equities open sharply lower (although notably above the pre-market low around sp'1957). The VIX is threatening an early peak of 23.80... and as its quad-opex, those who were bravely short from the Fed day high of 2020 have an opportunity to exit profitably into the weekend. Oil is notably weak, -3.4%




A very dynamic pre-market...  not least due to the German DAX lower by a very sig' -3%.

Best guess... rising support holds.. with renewed upside into next week. I realise a fair few would disagree with that right now!

notable movers..

BAC -2%   ... with rates not rising
FCX -9%... broader weak trend
SDRL -6%... with weak oil

*I remain content on the sidelines, as I'm going to let the market tell me whether it can hold rising support... or break lower.. and confirm that sp'2020 is a top.

stay tuned.... we have a long day ahead

10.01am    Leading indicators.. +0.1%... still... thats nothing to inspire the macro-bulls.

10.04am.. To confirm.. the opening VIX candle was indeed a black-fail.. and bodes AGAINST the bears.

They don't alway play out, but I'd argue 85% of the time they do... and equity bears need to be mindful that sp'2040s would be a far more natural cycle peak.

10.09am.. a very rare pair of black-fail candles

Equity bears... beware.

10.14am.. sp @ 1971.. .with VIX cooling to +4%...      looks like the bull maniacs managed to hold support.

10.28am.. Anyone think we could close Green? lol

It remains a nasty market... and the opening VIX candle was something to take seriously.