Thursday, 20 August 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Equity futures are sharply lower, sp -19pts, we're set to open around 2060... a mere 8pts above the Aug' 12th low. VIX is set to open in the 16.75/17.25 zone. There will be strong support around the Dow 17000 threshold.. equiv' to sp'2040s.

Dow, daily



*note the EMAs crossing upward on the VIX daily chart. 17s look due this morning.... 18s would be a bonus. 20s look out of range... even if sp'2040s.

The market mood continues to deteriorate, with multiple negative pressures, Oil, int' rate concerns, currency moves, and underlying economic worries as commodities implode.

As ever... there will be bounces along the way.. but we sure look headed broadly lower.

Many are soon going to wake up and realise the sp'500 is going to lose the 2K threshold... and then the mainstream will panic.

I will be watching the VIX very carefully at the open... not least for an opening black-fail candle. If so... I'll likely make a run for it... and merely re-short later.

The point is... I'll try to trade in/out of VIX across the next 4-6 weeks, but will look to re-long on EVERY cooling phase... whether hours... or a few days.

notable early movers...

DIS, -1.4% in the $104s... headed for $100.. and eventually... $94/90

INTC, -0.9% in the $28.10s.... next target is 26/25s. H/S scenario suggest $22s.

VXX +4.8%... as the VIX is set to jump at the open.

Overnight China action: The Shanghai comp' opened lower... a rally into the lunch break.. but then unraveled into the close, settling -3.4% @ 3664. The recent low of 3373 looks within range by end month... with broader downside to the 3200/3000 zone.

Worse case... 2500s... which would be an effective 50% crash from the June high.

Have a good Thursday!

8.00am.. sp -16pts.. .  2063 or so.

meanwhile... another comment from a bearish maniac....

long day ahead

8.31am   weekly jobs  277k... again.. inline.

sp -17pts... 2062

notable strength: TLT +0.5% in the $125.40s.

9.22am... chop chop... sp' -17pts .. 2063.. .... the 2050s look due.... but 2040s look tough.

Eyes on the VIX...

9.31am... tight stop on AAPL... looking to exit one position....

9.35am.. EXITED  AAPL-short.

seeking to drop VIX....

9.38am.. EXITED VIX-long.

.... now I'll wait until 2pm... and reassess... after a viable equity bounce

9.42am.. opening black-fail candle on the VIX..... bears beware.

(I got stopped out at VIX 16.60.. and AAPL 113.80)