Thursday, 20 August 2015

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open to an early low of sp'2059, with the VIX +9% in the 16.60s. It would seem that despite underlying weakness.. there remains a threat of the market clawing upward into the 2pm hour. Regardless.. all such bounces are to be treated as such.




*I was stopped out of VIX from 16.60.. and AAPL from 113.80... frankly.. that is fine.

Opening hourly VIX candle has been flirting with being a black-fail... but its not settled yet (as at 9.52am)

Now I await (and will cheer) another dumb bounce into the afternoon. I will likely short it.. at least to some extent.

So.. opening declines... but we're seeing some distinct signs that the market wants to rally. With opex tomorrow.. there will be some sig' threat of churn/moderate upside into the weekend.

The bigger weekly/monthly cycles are very clear on where we are headed though.

notable weakness: DIS -4.0% in the $102s... a full $20 lower since earnings.

10.02am  leading indicators -0.2%...  not exactly bullish.

Phil' fed, existing home sales come in okay though.

sp'2057..... new low.  VIX 17s imminent    Hmmmm

10.08am. VIX 17.07.... micro 5/15min cycles are very close to maxing out.   Right now, the 16.25/15.75 zone looks probable on any pull back.

The real issue is whether VIX will cool into the Friday close.. or just keep on pushing.   Lately, I've been overly early on buying back...  this is a tricky situation.

10.22am... new lows  sp'2053... and its starting to look like the key target of Dow 17000 and sp'2040s will be hit today... and then a multi-day bounce.

If so.. I won't get another chance to short this cycle... so... I'm now somewhat stuck.    Ohh, and I sure won't attempt to trade the bounce. 

10.25am... Pre-opex washout...    Dow... another 50/100pts to go.... and that should be it.