The VIX crept higher for the third consecutive day, closing the year @ 13.72. The VIX high for 2013 was a mere 21.91 in June - when sp' was a considerable way lower at 1560. The VIX looks set to remain under the key 20 threshold until at least late Jan/early Feb.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
VIX'monthly
Summary
Most notable, since the financial panic/crisis of autumn 2008, the VIX continues to put in lower yearly highs.
The 2012 high of 27 seemed low, and yet 2013 managed to undercut even that, with a peak of just 21 !
This remains a market that is effectively fearless. It is a market that knows the central banks will print as many trillions as necessary to keep this paper bubble going...
The main indexes settled moderately higher, with the sp +7pts @ 1848. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both climbed 0.7% and 0.3% respectively. Across the year, the sp gained 422pts, a pretty astounding gain of 29.6%. The sp'500 has climbed 72% since the Oct'2011 low..a mere 26 months ago.
sp'60min
Summary
..and that...as they say.............is that.
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For now...that will suffice.
*the usual bits and pieces across the evening to wrap up today.
Please also note, I'll be doing end year updates for the Gold Miners, Gold/Silver, and my still rarely visited MARCON page..the latter of which won't really come in use until late 2015/16.
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With one trading hour left of the year, the indexes have slipped an astounding...if not horrific 35 dow pts from the earlier historic high of 16563. Circuit breakers ..on standby...yes? VIX looks set to close the year in the low 14s.
sp'60min
Summary
...updates into year end (what else would I do?)
3.12pm.. sp'1842....support in the low 1830s...as if that is a low level. Anyone still think the 1820s are viable this side of February 2014?
Notice the metals...after the morning mini hyper-ramp..Silver is back red..Gold...+$4..looking weak.
3.23pm...after all..why would they let the indexes close red after a year like today?
Just two hours left of the trading year...are we having fun yet? The main indexes are holding moderate gains, with the VIX attempting a close in the low 14s. Perhaps most notable of the year, the VIX high for 2013 was a mere 21...which makes the 2012 peak of 27 look high in retrospect!
Dow, daily
VIX'daily3
Summary
Underlying pressure is to the upside (as ever)...a year end close in the sp'1850s would really top off what has been a crazy QE-fuelled year.
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*RIG +0.8% in the $49.20s...I'd certainly be seeking a weekly close >$50, where it will get tricky..does it get stuck 52/53..or keep on climbing?
Whilst the main market holds moderate gains, most notable today..and arguably the month, the NYSE Comp' has finally broken the Oct'2007 high of 10387. The Nasdaq Comp' is now the remaining main index yet to break its historic highs - the 5100s..a considerable 25% or so higher.
NYSE Comp, monthly
AAPL, daily
Summary
*AAPL looks strong on the daily/monthly charts. The $600s in January..very viable.
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I realise for many, its not that notable, but really, the break of the NYSE comp' above the Oct'2007 high, is pretty significant. Target for the late spring remains the 11000s.
US equity indexes break to new highs, with the sp +0.3% in the upper 1840s, a year end close in the 1850s is certainly viable...not that it should particularly matter! Weekly charts are offering the 1870/80s in the near term. Metals are holding gains, with Gold +$11
sp'weekly8
DRYS, weekly
Summary
re: DRYs, looks like we have seen a minor pull back..and now we're set to battle into the 5s..with a potencial swift move to the 6s.
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As for the main market...underlying upside...next to no sellers...hence..the trend will hold into January.
The Dow is holding the 16500s, having closed 2012 at 13104..a clear 2400pts to the upside - roughly..10pts per trading day. Metals have snapped higher, with Gold swinging from -$10 to +$15, we now have bullish engulfing candles on the daily charts....kinda interesting.
Dow, monthly
GLD, daily
Summary
Well, I've taken my lunch, so...I'm kinda waking up again, ha.
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Ahh yes..year end..things all get a little tiresome..but hey..tomorrow is free at least..we can rest then :)
notable strength: TWTR, +6.5%.
My much touted RIG looks on course to break $50 this week, but really, I am seeking 52/53 as my first exit by mid January
The indexes are battling to hold fractional gains, with sp'1844 holding as the recent high. Metals remain weak, Gold -$7, Silver -2.6%. Oil is weak, -0.8%. The rest of the day will likely see some chop, but with the usual underlying upside bias.
sp'60min
SLV, weekly
Summary
So..some slight upside, but its nothing of significance..but then..neither are we likely to see any sig' downside.
Notable strength: TWTR, +5%, DRYS, +2%
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*I'm tired..time to cook early lunch..if only to help keep me awake.
10.09am.. metals going nuts!
GLD, 5min
I've no idea what this crazy hyper jump is about..but it sure is whipsawing the metals bears out.
10.18am...new index highs...no doubt annoying the few who are short right now.
Regardless of the close...underlying pressure should remain upward into the coming weekend.
Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open around 1843. Metals are trying to bounce, Gold +$4, but this will be the worse year for the precious metals since the early 80s..pre-Madonna, when men were men..and women were not hanging naked on a wrecking ball.
sp'60min
Summary
Well, tis the final trading day of 2013.
I have very mixed feelings about this year, but I should probably leave that for a post later this evening. Suffice to say....one way or another..we made it through another year. For that alone, we all deserve prizes.
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*watch for the Chicago PMI number, that is due around 9.45am. If that comes in reasonable, 60/65 range, then market might use it as an excuse to rally into the 1850s..and hold that for a yearly close.
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I'll probably note it across the day..but sincerely.. good wishes for 2014
yours...
the (disturbingly bullish) permabear doomster
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Video update from Biderman
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8.50am... Gold and Silver snap strongly to the downside.. Gold -$11, Silver -3.5%.
Notable strength in DRYS, +2.5%.
The more I look at the market, the more I'm inclined to think Thurs/Friday are going to be strong upside..even to the 1870s.
With just one trading day left of 2013, it is very much a time to reflect upon what remains a deeply twisted and pumped up equity market. The sp' closed 2012 at sp'1426, and looks set for a yearly gain of around 415pts...a disturbingly powerful 29%
sp'weekly'4 - hyper-bullish outlook
Dow, monthly
Summary
*It is notable that at the Thursday Jan'1st open, the upper bollinger band on the Dow monthly charts will jump into the 17000s.
So...by mid/late Jan' we could be looking at Dow 16900/17100, with sp'1870/1900.
Looking ahead
There is actually a trio of econ-data tomorrow. Most important, the Chicago PMI. Market consensus is seeking 61, which is certainly way above the recessionary threshold of 50.0
*The new QE schedule was issued earlier today, with $40bn of T-bond purchases planned.
There is no sig' QE until next Tuesday.
Always a good reminder
The following video is something Schiff himself reposted today on his YT channel. It is not even his own video, but from what I read, the original was removed by YT (I guess clown finance TV were not so much upset in terms of copyright, but more so...how they acted, pre-housing/market crash).
*the video is a mere 240x, lousy quality, but hey..what is said, is what matters.
I'm sure most of you have seen it a dozen times, but I think its worth seeing every once in a while, as a reminder of just how stupid, and utterly deluded the mainstream usually are.
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A tough year
For many out there, not least those in
the chart community, it has been a tough year. There have been doomers
touting collapse waves across the entire year..Hell, even I had some
moderate hope of a 20% correction until June. Yet, when the market
failed to hit the lower weekly bollinger band in June, I threw in the
proverbial towel, and have been on the 'hyper-bullish' outlook ever
since.
I realise many are still not on that train of
thought, and I do understand, but seriously, the trend this year sure
hasn't been down, has it?
As many - even the bull
maniacs, recognise though, the longer this relentless multi-month up
trend continues, the stronger the next down wave will be, both in the
depth of decline, but also in terms of price volatility.
I'll
hold to my original outlook from the early summer. We have another 3-5
months to wait for an intermediate top to be put in..and then...things
should get real interesting.
The main indexes closed largely flat, with the sp -0.3pts @ 1841. The broad underlying trend remains bullish, and The VIX settled +8.7% @ 13.54. Market looks set to climb across the rest of the week. Metals closed the day weak, with Gold -$17
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
The market is naturally seeing minor chop into year end. It could also be seen a simple consolidation though, and indeed, the hourly index charts are offering what is probably just a bull flag.
We look set to break into the 1850s..whether tomorrow..or later this Thurs/Friday.
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*things remain quiet out there..so..I'll skip the normal evening wraps.
The underlying upward pressure should be pretty obvious to most out there, and the main US indexes should close fractionally higher. Metals remain weak, Gold -$12, Silver -2.1%. VIX is higher by almost 8% in the mid 13s.
sp'60min
Summary
Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) on the hourly index charts is clearly allowing a year end close in the sp'1850s tomorrow.
Yes, the VIX is somewhat higher, but I can't take it seriously, whilst there is zero power on the bearish equity side.
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Notable recovery in TWTR, now just -1%, back in the $63s.
We now have a clear reversal candle on TWTR. A net daily positive close would be very impressive for the momo chasers out there.
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3.45pm.. the index chop continues...however, there is increasing weakness in the metals..and that is bringing the miners lower.
The VIX jumped higher at the open, and continues to rise, now +6% in the 13.30s. However, there really isn't anything in the immediate term to suggest the market bull maniacs have anything to be concerned about. Metals remain weak, Gold -$10
vix'60min
Summary
I remain dismissive to todays gain in the VIX. Six percent of a small number, still only gives a low VIX..barely in the teens.
Later this week, if sp'1850/70s, then VIX will be in the 12/11s.
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Mr Market is slipping into a very subdued mood, price action is generally very minor. Metals remain weak, Gold -$10, Silver -1.8%. Shippers and momo stocks remain weak, and TWTR looks set to close <$60. Broader market upside later in the week is expected.
sp'60min
Summary
With next to zero downside power on the bearish side, Mr Market should be able to hold the sp'1835/30 zone by the close, if not also across Tuesday.
Does anyone seriously think the market won't rally later this week?
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Whilst the main indexes continue to build a pretty clear bull flag, there is notable weakness in the shipping and momo stocks. DRYS -6%, whilst TWTR is battling to re-take and hold the $60 threshold. VIX is +5% or so, but this is likely minor noise.
DRYS, daily
TWTR, daily
Summary
A quiet Monday...but bulls can be pleased in that it looks like the 1830s are going to comfortably hold, before the next lurch higher.
It looks highly probable that we will be in the sp'1850/70 zone later this week.
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There is a rather clear bull flag continuing to build on the hourly index charts. The sp'1830s should hold for the rest of today/tomorrow..before a renewed push higher. Weekly charts are offering the 1870s...and even the 1900s are viable by mid/late January.
sp'60min
sp'weekly8
Summary
*VIX is higher by 5%, but I can't take that seriously, not with the overall market mood.
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So...regardless of whether the chop ends today..or continues into the Tuesday close...we're set for the 1850/70 zone later this week.
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The indexes open with very minor chop, with first soft support in the sp'1835/33 zone. Certainly, bears haven't a hope of sub'1800 for some weeks. Metals are weak, Gold -$9. Hysteria stock TWTR, fails to hold the 62/60 support zone.
sp'60min
TWTR, daily
Summary
A little minor chop to start the week, but there is still some interesting action in individual stocks.
re: TWTR, the hysteria that it is...I'm still a little surprise to see it lose the 60s. Oh well, maybe they want to knock it back to the $50 threshold..before the next ramp into mid/late January.
Good morning. Futures are flat, we're set to open around sp'1841. With just two trading days left of 2013, we're likely to see some significant price chop. Metals are ending the year weak, Gold -$10, Silver -2.0%.
sp'weekly8
Summary
Well, we're almost there..another year about done.
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Notable early movers: TWTR -4% in the $61s... I would be surprised <$60 today.
Early strength: RIG, +0.8%...to the $49.20s. I'm seeking 52/53 by the Friday close..which is kinda bold, but it is viable.
The US equity indexes saw follow through from the post QE-taper ramp. Most indexes gained between 1.0% and 1.5%. There looks to be at least another 2-3 weeks of upside, and by mid January, the sp' could be somewhere in the 1875/1900 zone.
Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes
sp'500
The sp' climbed 1.3%, and this was important follow through from last weeks post QE-taper ramp. There is easy upside to the 1860/70s in early January, and the 1900s will be viable by late January. Arguably, the ultimate issue is whether we'll see sp'2000s before the next multi-month top. Right now, 2000s look just about viable in April/May, but it won't be easy.
Nasdaq Comp'
Tech also gained 1.3%, and is comfortably holding the 4100s. I've now little doubt the tech bubble high of March 2000 of 5131 will be tested, not in 2014..but in 2015. What will be interesting is how far down will the next multi-month wave go. Right now, the 3000 threshold looks a bold downside objective for summer/autumn 2014.
Dow
The mighty Dow climbed another 257pts (1.6%) this week, and is now well into the mid 16000s. The old trading range of spring/summer 2013 in the 14750-15750 zone is now fading far below. Dow looks set to hit 17000/500 by late spring. A move down to the 14000s would be the 'best bear case' in second half of 2014.
NYSE Comp'
The master index is just 34pts (0.3%) away from the Oct'2007 high of 10387. That looks set to be broken next week, and it will mark a key moment for the US market recovery from the March'2009 low of 4181. The 11000s look viable by the spring.
R2K
*ignore the spurious data/spike to 1213, which should have been removed by the exchanges.
The second leading index climbed 1.3%, and looks set for the 1200s in January. The only issue is whether the 1300s are going to be hit before the current 2.2yr cycle concludes.
Trans
The old leader - Transports, gained almost 1.0% this week, and is comfortably holding the 7300s. The 7500/7700 zone looks reasonably easy upside into the late spring. The only issue is whether 8000 will be viable before the next intermediate turn. I'd guess Trans will fail to break 8k in the current wave.
Summary
So, the market saw follow through from the QE-taper ramp. There looks to be at least another week, if not 2-3 weeks of further upside before the current wave completes, and then some 'moderate' downside, probably no more than 5-7%.
Looking ahead
Next week will again be a somewhat shortened one, with the market closed on New Years Day - Wednesday.
There is the Chicago PMI on Tuesday, but other than that, it looks to be a pretty quiet week. However, most notable, there are no less than four Fed officials speaking next Friday, including the Bernanke on the 'changing Fed'.
*the next QE-pomo schedule will be issued this Monday @ 3pm. There might be sig' QE on Tuesday or later in the week.
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Whilst the broader global equity indexes have rallied across 2013, the one nation that remains seemingly stuck is the mighty China. The Shanghai Comp' is -7% on the year, whilst its neighbour Japan, has seen the Nikkei ramp 55%. 2014 looks set to be an...'interesting' year.
Japan, monthly, 20yr
China, monthly, 20yr
Summary
First, its important to keep in mind that the Shanghai Comp' was in the 300s in 1994, whilst the Nikkei was in the 20000s. On a two decade overview, we have China up by a factor of 7, whilst Japan is actually some 20% lower.
So...why the stark contrast in market performance?
Without question, the primary issue is one of demographics. Whilst the Chinese population is still a youthful one..and growing, Japan is aging, and in decline.
*Just today, China has amended its one child policy...see BBC NEWS
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Of course, in the last two decades, QE has been a prop to fight the underlying deflationary pressures in Japan, and with the 'Abenomics' hyper-print policy, the Nikkei has soared in 2013. Printing huge amounts of new currency sure won't solve the population problems, and for the insular nation of Japan, it is now too late to reverse the trend.
Index outlook for early 2014
Whilst the Shanghai Comp' looks set to struggle - as based on the past few months of price action, the Nikkei looks very bullish. A year end close in the 16000s will decisively break a TWO decade down trend/channel, and opens up 17000 within 1-3 months. 18k looks viable by early summer, but 20k looks overly difficult until 2015.
I'm reluctant to call it a prediction, but as many recognise, there are increasing socio-political tensions in Asia, most especially between China and Japan. 2013 has seen China enact an air flight zone, whilst Japan is naturally claiming to defend its territory.
One thing is for sure, for the entirety of 2014, it will be a good idea to keep one eye on those rocks between China and Japan. The world equity markets are arguably looking for an excuse for a sharp (if brief) sell down, a little 'skirmish' - or even just the serious threat of one, would be one valid excuse.
Goodnight from London
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next main post, late Saturday, on the US weekly indexes
The main indexes closed with minor chop into the weekend, sp -0.6pts @ 1841. The two leaders settled -0.2% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook remains bullish, with a year end close seemingly likely in the 1850/60s.
sp'daily5
R2K
Trans
Summary
There is little to add about today. Market is likely just consolidating its latest move into new historic territory.
A Tuesday/year end close in the sp'1850/60s..along with Dow 16500/600s is now the immediate target.
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a little more later...
With equities seeing some significant follow through from the post QE-taper decision, the VIX saw a further very significant drop, declining by -9.6% across the week. VIX looks set to end 2013 in the 12/11 zone.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
VIX'weekly
Summary
More than anything, it is most notable that the VIX high for 2013 was a mere 21..whilst the 2012 high was 27.
It remains an Incredibly confident market, one which has little concern of the Fed easing off the paper printing peddle.
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The only issue is when the VIX will break back into the 20s. When the market breaks lower in mid/late January, it will be fascinating to see if Mr Market gets spooked, or whether it will be just a series of small volatility gains into the upper teens.
As it is, I have no plan to go long volatility until the late spring at the earliest.
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The main indexes saw minor chop into the weekend, sp -0.6pts @ 1841. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower, -0.2% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook remains broadly bullish, with a viable year end close in the sp'1850/60s.
sp'60min
Summary
Well, it was a short trading week, but the bulls got the follow through they should have been seeking. With the break into the sp'1840s, and Dow 16500s, the primary trend remains very strong. For those bears seeking a 5-7% correction...the wait may only be another 2-3 weeks.
Have a good weekend everyone!
The usual bits and pieces across the evening.
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*the weekend post will be on the US weekly indexes
The smaller 5/15/60min index cycles are offering opportunity for a little jump higher into the close. Regardless though, equity indexes look set to close the week with net gains of around 1.5%. Equity bulls remain in full control. Momo stocks remain weak/cooling down.
Dow, weekly
Summary
Without getting overly focused on the smaller cycles, there is reasonable chance of closing the week on a high.
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*notable strength in the coal miners: BTU, ANR, JRCC
BTU, daily
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updates into the close
3.07pm.. TWTR -9.3%.. the momo chasers getting nailed into the close...such a shame,
As ever, look for the VIX to get whacked lower in the closing minutes..happens more often than not.
3.18pm. TWTR -10.3% @ $65.75...there should be support in the 62/60 zone next Monday morning, before the madness starts climbing again.
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3.43pm.. TWTR -12.0%....rats really getting the kick now!
Main market looks fine though, Dow/Sp' both set to close fractionally higher.
