Friday, 27 December 2013

Volatility drops for a second week

With equities seeing some significant follow through from the post QE-taper decision, the VIX saw a further very significant drop, declining by -9.6% across the week. VIX looks set to end 2013 in the 12/11 zone.





More than anything, it is most notable that the VIX high for 2013 was a mere 21..whilst the 2012 high was 27.

It remains an Incredibly confident market, one which has little concern of the Fed easing off the paper printing peddle.

The only issue is when the VIX will break back into the 20s. When the market breaks lower in mid/late January, it will be fascinating to see if Mr Market gets spooked, or whether it will be just a series of small volatility gains into the upper teens.

As it is, I have no plan to go long volatility until the late spring at the earliest.

more later...on the indexes