Tuesday, 31 December 2013

Another year for the bull maniacs

With just one trading day left of 2013, it is very much a time to reflect upon what remains a deeply twisted and pumped up equity market. The sp' closed 2012 at sp'1426, and looks set for a yearly gain of around 415pts...a disturbingly powerful 29%

sp'weekly'4 - hyper-bullish outlook

Dow, monthly


*It is notable that at the Thursday Jan'1st open, the upper bollinger band on the Dow monthly charts will jump into the 17000s.

So...by mid/late Jan' we could be looking at Dow 16900/17100, with sp'1870/1900.

Looking ahead

There is actually a trio of econ-data tomorrow. Most important, the Chicago PMI. Market consensus is seeking 61, which is certainly way above the recessionary threshold of 50.0

*The new QE schedule was issued earlier today, with $40bn of T-bond purchases planned.
There is no sig' QE until next Tuesday.

Always a good reminder

The following video is something Schiff himself reposted today on his YT channel. It is not even his own video, but from what I read, the original was removed by YT (I guess clown finance TV were not so much upset in terms of copyright, but more so...how they acted, pre-housing/market crash).

*the video is a mere 240x, lousy quality, but hey..what is said, is what matters.

I'm sure most of you have seen it a dozen times, but I think its worth seeing every once in a while, as a reminder of just how stupid, and utterly deluded the mainstream usually are.

A tough year

For many out there, not least those in the chart community, it has been a tough year. There have been doomers touting collapse waves across the entire year..Hell, even I had some moderate hope of a 20% correction until June. Yet, when the market failed to hit the lower weekly bollinger band in June, I threw in the proverbial towel, and have been on the 'hyper-bullish' outlook ever since.

I realise many are still not on that train of thought, and I do understand, but seriously, the trend this year sure hasn't been down, has it?

As many - even the bull maniacs, recognise though, the longer this relentless multi-month up trend continues, the stronger the next down wave will be, both in the depth of decline, but also in terms of price volatility.

I'll hold to my original outlook from the early summer. We have another 3-5 months to wait for an intermediate top to be put in..and then...things should get real interesting.

Goodnight from London