With equities seeing some chop, the VIX cooled a little, settling -3.6% @ 19.60. With the Tuesday break into the 20s, the broader trend is for increased market volatility, and with no agreement on the shutdown/debt ceiling likely until next week, the VIX has a chance to spike into the mid/upper 20s.
Again, more than anything, equity bears should be seeking a weekly VIX close in the 20s. If that is achieved, it would be highly suggestive of much lower equity index levels next week, at least to the sp'1600/1590 level - where there is a cluster of support.
The VIX hourly has a possible upward channel, where we saw some natural resistance today.
Regardless of how the market opens Thursday, VIX looks set to be trading back in the 20s, the only issue is whether it can accelerate into the mid 20s before this week concludes.
more later..on the indexes