Wednesday, 9 October 2013

Monthly rollover due on the mighty Dow

The Dow'30 remains particularly weak, with next key support just fractionally lower at 14760, and then the 200 day MA of 14720. However, most notable of all, if the Dow doesn't claw back higher into end October, the monthly cycle will likely go negative in November.





First, I'm always adverse to cherry picking one index out above others, not least since it opens up all sorts of inherent biases. However, as many others have also noted the Dow has been effectively stuck for the last six months.

The daily chart break today was significant. The weekly charts are looking weak, and if we see Dow in the 14600s, the market is in real danger of spiraling much lower - if only 'briefly'.

As I often note, the monthly charts out-gun the daily/weekly cycles. What is now clear, unless the market can bounce back in the second half of October, we'll open November with the Dow monthly chart issuing the first big sell signal since Nov'2012.

Looking ahead

The main aspect for tomorrow will be the FOMC minutes (2pm). Mr Market will no doubt be looking to see who said what, and the chatter across tomorrow afternoon on clown finance TV will no doubt return to 'taper delayed...probably until 2014'.

If that is the case, the indexes might see at least a small bounce, although the broader down trend should hold, so long as we hold under sp'1670/75.

*there is no sig' QE until next Tuesday.

I'm tired of this market. Having been whipsawed for some weeks, I'm largely done with it, at least until this debt ceiling nonsense is out of the way.To the rest of you still involved...good luck! At the very least I will endeavour to offer something 'useful' in these pages.

Goodnight from London

Video from Gordon T Long, part'2 of a discussion on the Fed

If you've not already seen part'1 yet...see... HERE !