Thursday 20 December 2012

Volatility manages to claw higher

Despite the main indexes closing moderately higher, the VIX managed to close slightly higher. The VIX peaked in late afternoon @ 17.96, but slipped into the close, settling 1.8% higher @ 17.67


VIX'60min



VIX'daily



VIX, weekly


Summary

Today's follow through was useful, however minor it was. The closing hour was a little tease to the bears, and the VIX just missed breaking into the 18s.

The bigger daily and weekly charts offer such enormous upside potential, but that has been the case since the VIX lows in August.


The big question remains

How many more days, weeks, or months until the VIX explodes?

That is of course impossible to know, but there are certainly some clues out there. The underlying MACD on the big weekly cycle is still battling higher. Look at the leading line (black), and see what happened the last time it crossed the 0 threshold in late July 2011.

For now, the doomer bears will just have to dream of a move from VIX teens..into the 40s.

Yet, such a move would occur over just a few weeks, rather than months. So, once it gets going, its going to surprise many at how fast it develops.

More later..on the indexes.