Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed somewhat lower, but it is notable that what are often the two leading indexes - the transports and Rus'2000, both held up, and closed slightly higher. We are still considerably above the closing level from last Friday, and bears remain weak until we are trading back <sp'1413


IWM, daily

SP, daily

Trans, daily

Summary

Most of the day saw minor..and quite boring chop. A few points higher, a few points lower, but with a few political appearances across the afternoon, the markets showed a little weakness, and slipped lower into the close.

Certainly, the closing declines are nothing for the bears to get excited about, but we're almost 1% away from the sp'1448 high.

What is absolutely clear, until we are back below the levels from last Friday - sp'1413, we remain in a very broad up trend.

If we do somehow break <sp'1413, the subsequent market moves could be very strong, with the VIX breaking above the key 20 threshold.

A little more later