Thursday 20 December 2012

3pm update - twitchy into the close?

The market remains close to the recent 1448 high, bears need a close in the mid 1430s to maintain at least a narrow buffer zone. There is a possible baby bear flag on the hourly index charts, but considering the latest general upside action, its unreliable.


sp'60min



sp'daily5



Summary

I'm not sure of the exact time, but there is a vote on Boehners plan B' later this evening. From what I gather, that is not expected to pass, in which case Mr market might get a little bit rattled for the Friday open.

Regardless of potential after hours action, the imminent issue is whether we see an extended ramp into the close. I find it difficult to imagine we'll close above the recent two day peak.

Bears dearly need at least a fractional close in the red.
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Gold has certainly seen a bounce off the primary 158 target.



However, if we see any significant moves <sp'1400 early next year, I find it very hard to believe GLD will remain in the 150s.

UPDATE 8.20pm    A touch of weakness.



Would be good to see that bear flag confirmed by the close, but thats <1436 or so.

UPDATE 3.25pm, VIX at the high of the day, taking out the high from Dec'5


VIX making a break for it.