Tuesday, 19 June 2012

Daily Cycle Index Update - wave'2 continues

Wave'2 appears to remain on track, both in terms of price and time. A peak in this wave looks set for Wednesday. If the Fed announce the minor extension of QE-twist, that might give enough kick for a brief spike into the sp'1360s..before a VERY fast and hard reversal to the downside.

I look for June to close at sp'1305 or lower. So, if we're sp'1365 by Wednesday afternoon, that gives the market 7 trading days to drop 60pts..or more. That is plenty of time.

IWM, bearish outlook


Sp' daily, 4mth



I've been noting the important of the transports for weeks...today was a VERY strong day for transport stocks. A move over 5400 would obviously be massively bullish for the rest of the summer and indeed the year for main market.

If the Bernanke does QE3 (increasing the balance sheet by 500bn or more) this Wednesday, then the Transports would break 5400..and it would be the ultimate 'buy' signal.

However, I can't see QE3 yet, for a very long list of reasons. Regardless, the tranny will be something to watch across the rest of this week.

As for the other indexes today, most were broadly flat or showed only marginal gains. Bulls should be looking for further gains late tomorrow/early Wednesday.

Primary target zone of 1350/60 is due to be hit imminently. Whether secondary zone 1380/90 is hit..entirely dependent on the actions of the Fed.

I continue to hold to the master outlook - this is wave'2, with a destructive wave'3 lower to sp'1150/00 still on schedule for July.

A little more later.