Tuesday, 19 June 2012

10am update - in the zone

Well, after two weeks of waiting, we're finally in my sp'1350/60 zone. That's 87pts in this wave'2 in just 12 trading days. Pretty impressive bulls!

The VIX is lower, but we're now very low in price - you can see a red hollow reversal candle appearing already. I find 14s impossible to envision - baring a trillion dollar QE program. So..the VIX target is 17/16..tomorrow..briefly..and 16s only if the Fed' announce QE-twist extension. Lets be clear, I'm not concerned with Qe-twist, it is NOT new money.




I have to say it is tempting to short at these levels, yet there IS the real risk that the FOMC will decide to initiate a major QE3. Whatever they might call it, if its more than 300/500bn, I'd think the bearish case could be thrown out for the summer.

So, tomorrows decision will be VERY important in how the next few months..and indeed rest of the year proceed.

For the moment...I remain watching..and waiting.