Tuesday, 19 June 2012

SP' bigger picture - still on track

The US market remains - contrary to what the bull maniacs are touting, still on track for major summer declines. The only issue in my view is whether we break sp'1100 in the next push lower, or will the Bernanke make use of QE3 to lift the market away from what is a very dangerous area.

On any basis, most should see what is a very clear giant H/S formation on any of the index charts - both for the USA, and most other world indexes.

Sp, monthly'2


As a permabear, I would remain confident about the current bearish outlook if we see June close sp'1305 or lower. Anything over 1350 would be a VERY serious problem for the bears, however, we will have 7 full trading days after the FOMC decision, and that is plenty of time for the market to close net-lower for June.

sp', monthly, scenarios

Considering the current wave'2 (or 'B'), scenario 'B' remains my best guess. Scenario E is arguably now already invalidated.

If you look at the general cycle indicators on the monthly charts, you can see a very clear rollover, and that has NOT yet been reversed despite the rally from sp'1266.

I remain holding to primary target of 1350/60 - in the next few days, and then sp'1150/00 in July.

Goodnight from London