Monday, 18 June 2012

Volatility - smashed lower...again

With the Greek election out of the way, the option writers are happier to sell calls/puts for much lower prices. Insurance for a major market decline just got a lot cheaper today, VIX slipped over 13% !

On the VIX daily chart you can especially see clearly the break into the 18s today confirmed the H/S formation. There are probably at least 2 more down days for the VIX, possibly 4 if we somehow keep rallying on the indexes to 1380/90 by Friday.

VIX, 60min

VIX, daily, rainbow

VIX, weekly


I did not think we'd hit 18s today, so my new target low for this cycle will be 16/15 - on an index spike high of 1360/70 this Wednesday.

The weekly cycle looks exactly like July'2011, and most should remember what happened to the VIX across the following 3-4 weeks.

Lets be clear, VIX 40s...are still very possible this coming July.