Tuesday, 29 May 2012

Volatility - holding up

Despite the indexes rising around 1% today, the VIX only closed marginally lower, and in fact was largely green for much of the day. The daily and weekly cycles continue to suggest much higher volatility levels in June.


VIX, daily, bullish

VIX, daily, bearish

VIX, weekly


More than anything, I like the VIX weekly chart. It was warning since March of downside in the indexes, and we did indeed see a move from sp'1422 to the daily cycle low of 1291 just last week. Yet VIX is still relatively low, we have seen no panic spikes yet. There have been no high volume selling days in the equity market.

Mr VIX near term target remains 27/29...that may well be enough for a 'spike high', but...I am still looking for high 30s/40s by late June.