SP'monthly
If you look at the previous two major down cycles of summer 2010/11, you'll see that we often see a significant bounce in the first 1 or 2 down months.
So, as long as we close Thursday (the end of May, how can it be almost June already?), no higher than about 1355/60, the trend is still very much downward.
In the meantime of course, we've probably a few more days of nonsense to come, maybe even a week or two. Yet, its just noise in the bigger picture. I envy the bigger players, who can sit back with non-leveraged ETFs, or super long dated index Puts. They can merely sit back and relax across this summer - with a good stop, no higher than the peak of sp'1422, which should arguably be tightened to around 1395/80.
Quick update on the sp'60min cycle
*ignore the wave count on my hourly charts, I'm as confused as anyone else out there lately. What I am certain of, is the bigger monthly cycles.
IWM, daily - bearish outlook
*most interesting of all so far today, the Rus'2000 index, is putting in a black candle..warning of at least 'weakness after the opening gap UP' in this market. I can't fathom to guess whether this is the top of a 'wave'2 - considering the daily MACD, I'd say 'no, there is more upside to come'. But hey,...here we are..and black candles are NEVER to be dismissed lightly!
Time for lunch!