Tuesday 8 March 2016

WTIC Oil - resistance is near

Along with equities, WTIC Oil, continues to broadly climb from the Feb'11th low of $26.05, with a net daily gain of $1.57 (4.3%) to $37.90. Near term outlook offers the 38/40 zone. Sustained price action in the 40s looks extremely unlikely, as the underlying issue of over-supply remains 100% unresolved.


WTIC, weekly



WTIC, monthly


Summary

The current rally is arguably no different to those periodically seen last year, with the broader trend remaining bearish.

The $26s look no more a floor than the low from last August, when many touted the $37s as the floor.


In terms of downside...

On a break <26, first target is the psy' level of $20, with secondary target zone of $16/15.

Considering overall demand, but more importantly.. supply issues, the mid teens look highly probable.

How fast the energy industry capitulates - with mid tier (listed) bankruptcies.. is difficult to say.
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Looking ahead

Tuesday has nothing of significance scheduled, and price action will likely be even more subdued than today.
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Goodnight from London