Tuesday, 8 March 2016

10am update - provisional break

The sp'500 has seen a provisional break of the upward trend that stretches back to the 1810 low of Feb 11th. However, there still remains risk of renewed upside to the 2020/40 zone, as Draghi/Yellen are yet to appear. Oil is under pressure, as a Kuwaiti oil minister threatens to go 'full power' (on supply) if no agreement is reached.




*metals and miners remain highly vulnerable - at least on a cyclical basis, but more on those later.

Vol' remains light, and with nothing scheduled today, other than sporadic news, there really isn't much hope for sustained downside ahead of the Thursday ECB.

I still see no hurry for bears to get involved.

notable weakness... the junk/usual suspects: CNX, CHK, FCX, SDRL, RIG,

FCX, daily

If you believe in the notion that sp'1810 is NOT a key low, then the junk will break new lows into the spring... and I find it impossible to believe a fair number of them won't eventually file for bankruptcy.

stay tuned