Thursday, 10 March 2016

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are broadly higher, sp +16pts, we're set to open at 2005. USD is +0.8% in the DXY 97.90s. Metals are a little lower, Gold -$3, with Silver -0.2%.  Oil is +0.1% in the $38s.


WTIC oil, weekly


*ECB: headline deposit rate cut 10bps to -0.4%

QE increased to €80bn (from 60) a month, now including 'investment grade' non-bank corp' bonds.

Refinancing rate cut from 0.05% to... 0.0%

re: Oil. Descending trend offers clear resistance around the $40 threshold. Upper bollinger is $46s... will be 44s next week.

On any fair basis, sustained action >$40 does not look viable... never mind the fact that the issue of over supply remains completely unresolved.

As for equities, the market is initially pleased with the various moves by the ECB.

A daily close above 2K looks probable... and that opens up the 2020/40 zone by next Wednesday afternoon.

Overnight action

Japan: +1.3% in the 16800s
China: unraveling into the close, -2.0% @ 2804
Germany: currently +1.3%....

Have a good Thursday

7.57am... sp +21pts... that gives 2010.. a new cycle high.... bears set to get washed out.. the 200dma is now likely today.

Metals starting to notably cool, Gold -$6, with miners -1.0%

8.00am.. Gold -$11, miners -2.0%.....     things look pretty much on track into the FOMC.

8.11am .. sp +18pts... 2007.... for now, the gains look pretty solid, and by this afternoon, we could be damn close to the 200dma around sp'2020.

notable weakness... TVIX -7% in the $6.60s

8.26am... Gold swings from -11 to +3....  hmm. Still looks in process of falling into the FOMC.

sp +18pts.. 2007.

.... here comes Draghi press conf'..............................

8.38am.. DB +4.6% in the $19s.. which is pure comedy, as NIRP worsens bank profitability.

sp +21pts... 2010.....

9.07am.. sp +14pts... 2003...  a little cooling, but still... the broader market response remains positive... and that will surely carry across into the FOMC.

9.31am.. major failure.. as Draghi spooks the FOREX market... Euro powerfully rebounds... and equities naturally cool.

Gold +$9... from -11 earlier.  Miners are naturally following...... GDX +1.7%

9.34am.. Draghi struggling to talk about 'helicopter money'. lol 

9.39am.. A serious mess right now... could go either way.... cyclically, STILL inclined to the upside, but Draghi has messed things up with the Euro back to 1.10.