VIX a little higher

With US equity indexes closing moderately mixed, the VIX saw a great deal of chop (intra low 13.49), but settling +2.9% @ 13.95. Near term outlook offers the 15/16s. Sustained action above the key 20 threshold looks out of range for another 2-3 weeks.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX' monthly

Summary

*with March coming to a close, a rare look at the monthly chart, which saw a net decline of -32.1%

The powerful net monthly decline should come as no surprise, after the Jan/Feb' candles. The topping spikes are usually a strong indications of upside exhaustion.
--

Market volatility remains very subdued, but on any fair basis, is set to climb to the mid/upper teens within the near term.

However, a sustained move above the key 20 threshold looks out of range in the current up wave from the low of 13.06.

Equity bears/VIX bulls will probably have to wait until the latter half of April before things start to get a little wild again.

Hyper VIX upside looks entirely out of range until at least early May.

--
more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed into the March/Q1 close, sp -4pts @ 2059 (intra high 2067). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers a retrace, at least to the sp'2000/1990 zone.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: minor chop, an attempt to re-clear the hourly 10MA, but failing, and leaning distinctly lower into the close.
--

... and the first quarter of the year concludes.

It sure hasn't been boring, with a major Jan/Feb down wave to sp'1810, but then a massive rebound to 2072.

Most notable.. despite a mountain of 'everything is fine again' chatter, the equity bulls are yet to clear the most recent of the 'marginally lower highs' - the late Dec' high of 2081.

Until that is closed above... the equity bears can hold short.

Have a good evening
--

more later... on the VIX

3pm update - the sun sets on Q1

US equities have seen one hell of a first quarter, declining from sp'2043 to 1810, only to then see a hyper rebound to 2072. Since the May'2015 high of 2134, the series of marginally lower highs remains intact.

sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

A rather glorious sunset to end a spring day.
--

As for equities, we have the usual 'end month/quarter' rebalancing issues, so.. expect price action to get a little more dynamic in the closing hour.

Considering the hourly equity/VIX cycles, I'd be inclined to seek increasing weakness into the close, and across tomorrow.

What now matters is how the market interprets the monthly jobs data. Even then.. whether seen as 'good news IS good news' or 'bad news is good news'.. or even 'bad news IS bad news'... cyclically speaking, this market is still due to retrace.

*the hourly cycle is offering VIX 15s with sp'2040/35 tomorrow morning.
--

yours truly remains holding short.

--
back at the close.. to wrap up the day/month

2pm update - in other news...

US equities remain in minor chop mode. Cyclically, the hourly cycle is still suggestive of increasing weakness into the Thursday/March close.. and (in theory) could extend across Friday. Clearly though, even an initial move to the sp'2040/30s won't likely be particularly straight forward.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Little to add... on what could merely be a minor chop day before the next sig' move.

Its interesting that the Nasdaq comp' remains unable to clear the 4900 threshold... which has been a key level for the better part of a year.


--
In other news...

According to Zerohedge (yes, I do keep an eye on that twisted site), the infamous Gartman has waved the white flag, and is now touting 'not to fight the fed'.

So.. there is your kooky sell signal.
--

back at 3pm

1pm update - fractional new high for the R2K

Whilst the broader market continues to churn, there is a notable new cycle high (if fractional) for the second market leader - the R2K. Next resistance is the 200dma in the 1140s, if hit, it would be suggestive of sp'2080/85 zone.


R2K, daily

R2K, monthly

Summary

It is notable that the R2K remains under the monthly 10MA - currently @ 1143, 2pts above the 200dma.

In any case, the R2K is set for a monstrous monthly gain of around 8%, which I believe is the best month since Oct'2011.
--

Relative weakness... miners, GDX, daily

..which considering Gold is +$6.. is something of an under performance.

12pm update - four candles

US equities remain in minor chop mode, as the monthly/quarterly close is fast approaching. Understandably, many of the bulls are now gunning for further broad upside into the summer, along with new historic highs in most indexes.


spdaily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add.

Market seems content to churn. Current price action is clearly still leaning on the upside, but technically, a break lower remains due.

--
As for 'four candles'



An English classic (1976)... as the second of 'The Two Ronnies' - Ronnie Corbett, has died.

Distant times indeed.
-

back at 1pm

11am update - a little interesting

US equities remain in minor chop mode, but the hourly equity/VIX cycles continue to swing increasingly in favour of the equity bears. Some distinct weakness into the monthly close remains viable. Metals are holding gains, Gold +$9.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Hmm, its getting a little interesting.

The MACD setup is offering a bearish equity cross in about 3 hours, with the VIX offering a bullish cross in 2 hours.

Certainly, by late afternoon, there is opportunity for the market to finally break lower... not least ahead of the jobs data.

--
Here in London city...

Its reasonable... :)

--
time to cook

10am update - opening micro chop

US equities open rather subdued. The hourly equity/VIX cycles continue to increasingly lean in favour of the equity bears. With the USD -0.4% in the DXY 94.40s, the metals are naturally on the rise, Gold +$11, with Silver +1.5%. Oil is +0.5% in the $39s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*Chicago PMI: 53.6... nothing bearish there. Equity bulls should be rather pleased with that number.
--

Little to add.

First soft downside target for the bears should be a break under the Tuesday close of sp'2055. If that can be achieved, the door will open to 2040/35... with VIX 15s.

--
notable weakness, BA, daily

Lower for a seventh day... seemingly headed to 122/121.
-

time for some sun... back soon

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are fractionally lower, sp -1pt, we're set to open at 2062. USD continues to cool, -0.3% in the DXY 94.50s. Metals are back on the rise, Gold +$8. Oil is broadly flat in the $38s.


sp'60min

Summary

*awaiting the Chicago PMI.. due at 9.45am.
--

Not much to add.

Cyclically, downside pressure should (in theory) increase across today.

Since it is end month, price action will be more dynamic this afternoon. Further, with the jobs data tomorrow, I am somewhat suspicious that there will be some 'cautious selling' into the close.
--


Overnight action

Japan: weakness into the close, -0.7% @ 16758
China: micro chop, +0.1% @ 3003
Germany: currently -0.6% @ 9987
-

Have a good Thursday

The important monthly close

As things are, even if the equity bears manage a sig' net Thursday decline of 20/25pts (which even to me, is being overly bearish), US equity indexes are set for powerful net monthly gains. Somewhat concerning, will be a very probable close above the 10MA.


sp'monthly1b

Summary

With a Wednesday close of sp'2063, we're a clear 44pts (2.2%) above the 10MA of 2019.

A Thursday/March close under the 10Ma looks out of range, not least relative to ongoing price action. At best.. a March close in the 2040/35 zone, but even that looks a stretch.


Implications of a close above 10MA?

Well, it sure ain't good for those seeking much lower levels into the summer.

Things are extremely borderline, not least as the most recent 'marginally lower high' is from Dec'2015 @ 2081. Any price action above that level, and it would open the door to new historic highs into the summer.

Indeed, it is highly arguble that for those currently holding short, the white flag waving zone is sp'2080/85. It would seem largely pointless to hold into the 2090s.. as the market would likely just keep on pushing upward.


--
A brief update on:  WTIC oil, weekly'2

Today was interesting in that we saw a net build of 2.3 million barrels be considered by the market as a relief, yet early gains of almost 3% was fully reversed, with a net daily decline of around -0.4%.

The $40 threshold is clear resistance, and right now, I think we have a mid term high of $42.49.
--


Looking ahead

Thursday will have the usual weekly jobs. More important, is the latest Chicago PMI number. Market is expecting around 50. The econ-bears should be seeking anything under the recessionary threshold of 50. The 48s or lower would be.. useful.

*Fed official Evans is on the loose again, with the more threatening Dudley due in AH.
--

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +8pts @ 2063 (intra high 2072). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers an overdue retrace, at least to the 2000/1990 zone, which would likely equate to VIX 18/19s.


sp'daily5

Nasdaq comp'

NYSE comp'

Summary

sp'500: an effective hit of the upper daily bollinger at 2072. The closing daily candle.. marginally spiky.. threatening near term downside.

Nasdaq: a clear black-fail doji, having tested, and unable to clear (at least on this first attempt) the important 4900 threshold.

NYSE: the master index managed its first close above the 200dma since last July, although the net daily gain of 0.5% is not exactly decisive.

--
a little more later...

VIX breaks another new low

With US equity indexes closing moderately higher, the VIX was still broadly subdued, having made a new cycle low of 13.06, but settling -1.9% @ 13.56. Near term outlook offers some equity weakness, with a push higher in the VIX to the 18/19s. Sustained action >20 looks difficult for another few weeks.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

*I adjusted the descending trendline on the daily chart.. as we broke a new cycle low today.

As of the April 1st' open, VIX bulls need to see 15s to offer any opportunity of the upper teens next week.
--

Suffice to add.. it was pretty incredible to see the VIX almost break into the 12s this morning.

Yet.. we did see a turn around 11am. The 14/15s look viable tomorrow/Friday.

--
more later.... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +8pts @ 2063 (intra high 2072). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers an overdue retrace, at least to the 2000/1990 zone, which would likely equate to VIX 18/19s.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: micro chop... leaning a touch lower into the close.. but clearly, nothing of any significance.
--

Another day for the equity bulls, but with a moderate hint that we might have seen at least a short term high - as reflected in a great many black-fail candles.

In theory, there is potential for broad declines tomorrow.. to the 2040/35 zone. Even if that is the case, that will make for a monthly close above the 10MA... and that is a problem.

--
more later... on the VIX

3pm update - leaning weak into the close

US equities remain moderately higher, but price momentum still appears to be swinging back toward the equity bears. VIX is choppy, but holding above the earlier low of 13.06. A move into the 14s, whether into the close/tomorrow will offer some provisional clarity.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

The hourly 10MA will be around sp'2060 across the closing hour.

Any close in the 2050s would be...useful to those bolding still holding short.

--
I've been browsing a fair few of my company charts... CAT is a fair example for today...

A new cycle high of $77.25, but the daily black-fail candle bodes in favour of the bears tomorrow. First support is the 72/71 zone.. where the 200dma is lurking.
-


3.23pm.. Gold -$15....   miners GDX -1.8%.... and that is despite another day lower for the USD, -0.3% in the DXY 94.80s.
-

As for equities, so much for leaning lower into the close. Annoyingly, with still no sustained downside power.. we're back to sp'2068.....  a mere 4pts shy of the earlier new cycle high.

back at the close

2pm update - oil is not helping

Whilst equity price momentum is now in the process of swinging back toward the bears, there is notable weakness in WTIC oil, which has swung from early gains of almost 3% to currently -0.7% in the $39s. The $40 threshold remains pretty strong resistance.


USO, daily2

NYSE comp'

Summary

*note the current black-fail candle for the NYSE comp', which could even turn red by the close.
-

Equity bears should be seeking a few daily closes back under the 200dma for each of the main indexes, and its notable for the sp'500, that is currently @ 2016.
--

Not much to add.

With two hours to go.. considering the hourly equity/VIX cycles, there is serious threat of a marginal net daily decline for most indexes, with VIX set for the 14s.. whether by the close.. or tomorrow.

In theory... the hourly MACD cycle offers increasing downward pressure into the Thursday/March close.
--

notable strength:  CREE, higher by around 3%.
-

back at 3pm

1pm update - reversals all over the place

US equities remain moderately higher, but there are clear reversal candles appearing all over the place. A net daily decline in the sp'2055/45 zone now looks probable. VIX is similarly offering a key floor of 13.06, a daily close in the 14s would give provisional clarity.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

I guess you could say, this is 'marginally' more interesting than the 11am hour.

We have clear turns on the hourly equity and VIX MACD cycles. Often, we'll get some hours of chop to solidify a floor/ceiling.

Regardless... with 3 hours to go, even a marginal net daily decline would no doubt spook some of the more twitchy bull maniacs.

--
notable reversal... BA, daily

Having decided to fire 4000 people, we've seen a strong swing from the $132s to 128s. Its a very long way just to reach the Feb' low of $102.

*note the daily MACD cycle, set to turn negative late today/early tomorrow. Next support will be the 50dma in the 122/120 zone... and that is a clear 4% lower.
--

stay tuned !

12pm update - marginally interesting

US equities have cooled from a morning high of sp'2072 to 2063.  VIX is similarly offering a turn, from a new cycle low of 13.06. Equity bears should remain desperate for a marginally red close.. with VIX back in the 14s. That sure won't be easy, but cyclically, the setup now favours the bears.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*notable weakness, Gold -$15, with the miner ETF of GDX -2.9%  ... but more on those later.
--

Things are indeed 'marginally interesting' with a natural turn from 11am.

Overall though.. I'll take things seriously once I see VIX 14s, with sp'2040s. That would give initial clarity that a retrace might finally be underway.

In any case...  a red daily close is clearly now viable.

--
time for lunch

11am update - continued bullish sunshine

US equities are holding broad gains, with the sp +14pts @ 2069. It is notable that the Nasdaq comp' is making a serious attempt to clear major resistance at the 4900 threshold. VIX is confirming the near total market complacency, having broken a new cycle low of 13.19.


Nasdaq comp', daily

VIX'daily3

Summary

We've another oil inventory surplus, but a mere 2.3 million barrels. It would seem anything under 5 million is now treated as bullish for oil. Clearly, the $40 threshold is offering some resistance though.

Right now, a daily close back in the sp'2050s would be something for the equity bears.
-

notable strength: FCX +3% in the $10.40s, as even the Cramer is touting 'FCX will make it'.

-
Here in London city...

Spring sunshine, and summer warmth might be just 3-4 weeks away.

--
time to cook
-

11.10am.. Metals sure are weak today... Gold -$14...   Silver -0.5%.  

That is not helping the miners, GDX -1.8%... although not yet negating even half of yesterday's gains.
-

11.27am... VIX trying to floor from 13.06.

60min

Kinda interesting, but I can't take it seriously until the 15s

10am update - opening gains

US equity indexes open broadly higher, with the sp' breaking a new cycle high, +16pts @ 2071. Despite the USD -0.2% in the DXY 94.90s, the metals are in cooling mode, Gold -$9. Oil is +2% in the $39s, ahead of the latest EIA report.


sp'daily5

Nasdaq comp'

Summary

*I highlight the Nasdaq comp', as the 4900 threshold is one of the last key resistance levels. Any price action above the giant psy level of 5K would bode for new historic highs.
-

So... new cycle highs, and we have almost everyone bullish.

Equity bears should be desperate for a latter day cooling, with a marginal net daily decline.

--
notable strength, AAPL, daily

Set for a test of the 200dma in the $110s.

**it remains curious that we saw a 'rogue print' in the $110.50s last Mon' March 21st.

--
back for the oil report at 10.30am
-

10.30am . EIA report.. net weekly surplus, 2.3 million barrels.

Oil +2.6%.... in the $39s.    

USD -0.5% in the DXY 94.60s... and that is clearly helping.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +12pts, we're set to open at 2067. USD continues to cool, -0.3% in the DXY 94.80s. Metals are cooling from strong Tuesday gains, Gold -$7.  Oil is +1.0% in the $38s, ahead of the latest EIA report.


sp'60min

Summary

*awaiting ADP jobs data
--

So, the sp'2056 high is going to be broken at the open. Next resistance is the upper daily bollinger in the 2070/75 zone.

The late Dec'2015 high of 2081 is arguably the last tolerable level for equity bears. Any action above there would bode for broad upside into the summer... to new historic highs in at least the headline indexes.

For now, that still seems very unlikely.
-

There is the equally important issue of the monthly close. As things are, the majority of world equity markets are holding within a downward trend from last spring/summer. I'll detail that this weekend.

--
Update from Mr C



--
Hunter with the legendary Mr Black on financial fraud


-

Overnight action

Japan: broadly weak, -1.3% @ 16878
China: increasing strength, +2.8% @ 3000.
Germany: currently +1.7% @ 10055, next resistance is 10400/500s.
--

Have a good Wednesday
-

8.15am ADP jobs: 200k.

sp' holding gains of around 11pts... 2066.

*Fed official Evans set to appear on clown finance TV.

Cyclically due to retrace

On any fair basis, having climbed from the Feb'11th low of sp'1810 to 2056, the US market is due (at the very least) a retrace. First natural downside target is the 50dma, which in early April will be in the 1960s. As ever, the looming monthly close will be important for US and all other world equity markets.


sp'weekly1b

sp'monthly1b

Summary

Suffice to add, with two trading days left of the month, its going to be tough to attain another close under the 10MA, currently @ 2019.

Equity bears are going to need some dire oil inventory numbers (at least 6-7 million barrel surplus) to help swing the market lower. 
--


Market chatter from Schiff



---
Looking ahead

Wed' will see ADP jobs, and the latest EIA oil report (10.30am).

*Fed official Evans is set to speak to the 'Forecasters club' at 1pm. There is indeed some irony in a fed official at such a club, as the Fed is notoriously one of the worse economic forecasters out there, arguably only surpassed by the IMF.
--

*bonus chart - WTIC oil, weekly2

It is notable we currently have a blue candle. If the week closes blue, it will be a provisional sign that we've likely maxed out at $42.49. If that is indeed the case, the outlook for energy stocks - and the broader market, is bearish across April/May.
--


Finally involved

After what seems like years, yours truly is finally involved again. It is of course extremely difficult to catch the top of any equity cycle... and today's close was a little disappointing. However, all things considered, it is unfathomable to imagine that the market won't see some significant cooling into early April... at least to the 50dma.

I hold overnight - short the sp'500.. and long the VIX.

Goodnight from London