Thursday, 31 March 2016

VIX a little higher

With US equity indexes closing moderately mixed, the VIX saw a great deal of chop (intra low 13.49), but settling +2.9% @ 13.95. Near term outlook offers the 15/16s. Sustained action above the key 20 threshold looks out of range for another 2-3 weeks.



VIX' monthly


*with March coming to a close, a rare look at the monthly chart, which saw a net decline of -32.1%

The powerful net monthly decline should come as no surprise, after the Jan/Feb' candles. The topping spikes are usually a strong indications of upside exhaustion.

Market volatility remains very subdued, but on any fair basis, is set to climb to the mid/upper teens within the near term.

However, a sustained move above the key 20 threshold looks out of range in the current up wave from the low of 13.06.

Equity bears/VIX bulls will probably have to wait until the latter half of April before things start to get a little wild again.

Hyper VIX upside looks entirely out of range until at least early May.

more later... on the indexes